IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth

Taiwan's long-run total factor productivity performance is better predicted by small-and-medium-enterprise (SME) density, export-market discipline, and product-market competition intensity than by direct state planning or state-owned-enterprise (SOE) share.

Relative to comparator economies with heavier state direction (South Korea's chaebol era, Malaysia's national champions), Taiwan's SME-led, export-oriented structure is associated with higher TFP growth and lower resource misallocation over 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.

PARTIALengine/runs/taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001811, p=0.54 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.0001811, p=0.54 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Sme share of employment
  • State planning intensity
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Labour productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth
1007550250196019902020TWNKORJPNSGPMYSTHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 6 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:03Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Taiwan's long-run total factor productivity performance is better predicted by small-and-medium-enterprise (SME) density, export-market discipline, and product-market competition intensity than by direct state planning or state-owned-enterprise (SOE) share. Relative to comparator economies with heavier state direction (South Korea's chaebol era, Malaysia's national champions), Taiwan's SME-led, export-oriented structure is associated with higher TFP growth and lower resource misallocation over 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if state planning intensity carries a positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on TFP growth that is larger than the SME-share coefficient, or if the SME-share coefficient is not positive and significant in a panel that includes Taiwan and comparators.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_sme_vs_state_planning_1960_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects with interaction between SME share and export openness.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfptier 5
log_diff_5y
sme_share_of_employment
treatment
constructed:ilo_sme_employment_sharetier 5
level
state_planning_intensity
treatment
constructed:soe_share_plus_directed_credit_intensitytier 5
level
export_market_discipline
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
institutional_quality
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
fdi_inflows_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — taiwan_sme_competition_vs_state_planning_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001811, p=0.54 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Taiwan's long-run total factor productivity performance is better predicted by small-and-medium-enterprise (SME) density, export-market discipline, and product-market competition intensity than by direct state planning or state-owned-enterprise (SOE) share. Relative to comparator economies with heavier state direction (South Korea's chaebol era, Malaysia's national champions), Taiwan's SME-led, export-oriented structure is associated with higher TFP growth and lower resource misallocation over 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if state planning intensity carries a positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on TFP growth that is larger than the SME-share coefficient, or if the SME-share coefficient is not positive and significant in a panel that includes Taiwan and comparators.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_sme_vs_state_planning_1960_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0001811
  • Std error: 0.0002934
  • p-value: 0.54
  • Observations: 84, countries: 4
  • Within R²: 0.712
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → export_market_discipline (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfp (outcome, name=labour_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:ilo_sme_employment_share (treatment, name=sme_share_of_employment) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:soe_share_plus_directed_credit_intensity (treatment, name=state_planning_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:03+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Taiwan's SME structure is partly an artefact of mainland refugee entrepreneurship and US aid conditions, not purely a policy choice. Reverse causality (high productivity enabling SME entry) is a concern addressed partially through lagged treatment variables.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.