IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification

Argentine tax-cut episodes — Macri 2017 simplification (export-tax cuts, income-tax floor adjustments, asset-revaluation amnesty) and Milei 2024 cuts (PAIS-tax simplification, top-rate adjustments, dollarisation- preparation framework) — produced upward shifts in the Argentine top-1 pretax income share over their respective post-treatment windows vs LATAM synthetic control, but with the headline-rate effect attenuated by 100+ percent inflation regimes that mechanically inflate measured capital-income realisations.

The discriminating test pairs nominal vs real (CPI-deflated) top-1 share movements.

PARTIALengine/runs/tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-4.148, |gap|/pre_sd=2.6, p_perm=0.75; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-4.148, |gap|/pre_sd=2.6, p_perm=0.75; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2010 to 2025, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Arg macri post 2016
  • Arg milei post 2024
What we checked
  • Top 1pct pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification
1007550250201020182025ARGBRAMEXCOLPERCHLURY
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_1pct_pretax_income_share across 7 sampled countries over 2010–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T12:29:42Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Argentine tax-cut episodes — Macri 2017 simplification (export-tax cuts, income-tax floor adjustments, asset-revaluation amnesty) and Milei 2024 cuts (PAIS-tax simplification, top-rate adjustments, dollarisation- preparation framework) — produced upward shifts in the Argentine top-1 pretax income share over their respective post-treatment windows vs LATAM synthetic control, but with the headline-rate effect attenuated by 100+ percent inflation regimes that mechanically inflate measured capital-income realisations. The discriminating test pairs nominal vs real (CPI-deflated) top-1 share movements.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if real (CPI-deflated) Argentine top-1 share rises by at least 0.5 percentage points over each post-treatment window vs LATAM synth at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or rise less than 0.2 percentage points over either window.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic-control with LATAM donor pool, treated ARG 2017 and separately 2024. Robustness using inflation-regime controls.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2010 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with LATAM donor pool. Multi-treatment with inflation-regime controls.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_1pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
arg_macri_post_2016
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for ARG, year >= 2016tier 5
indicator
arg_milei_post_2024
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for ARG, year >= 2024tier 5
indicator
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
cpi_inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_argentina_macri_milei_simplification

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-4.148, |gap|/pre_sd=2.6, p_perm=0.75; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Argentine tax-cut episodes — Macri 2017 simplification (export-tax cuts, income-tax floor adjustments, asset-revaluation amnesty) and Milei 2024 cuts (PAIS-tax simplification, top-rate adjustments, dollarisation- preparation framework) — produced upward shifts in the Argentine top-1 pretax income share over their respective post-treatment windows vs LATAM synthetic control, but with the headline-rate effect attenuated by 100+ percent inflation regimes that mechanically inflate measured capital-income realisations. The discriminating test pairs nominal vs real (CPI-deflated) top-1 share movements.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if real (CPI-deflated) Argentine top-1 share rises by at least 0.5 percentage points over each post-treatment window vs LATAM synth at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or rise less than 0.2 percentage points over either window.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: ARG
  • event_year: 2017
  • n_donors: 3
  • donor_weights (top): {'URY': 1.0, 'COL': 0.0, 'PER': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 6.2420349246059175
  • pre_period_sd: 1.58291819118993
  • mean_post_gap: -4.1483333333333325
  • end_period_gap: -3.210000000000001
  • post_period_years: [2017, 2022]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.75
  • n_placebos: 3
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1pct_pretax_income_share (outcome, n=3294)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (controls, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T12:29:42+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 5. Argentine inflation regime is uniquely identifying for the nominal-vs-real top-share confound.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.