IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution

Brazilian tax-base evolution 1995-2024 — Real Plan stabilisation 1994 + CPMF transactions tax 1997-2007 + Lula CCT funding 2003-2010 + Dilma fiscal expansion + Bolsonaro tax simplification proposals + Lula 2024 consumption-tax reform — produced disposable-income Gini reduction of at least 3 Gini-points over 1995-2024 driven primarily by transfer-side expansion rather than tax-progressivity.

The discriminating test decomposes pretax vs disposable Gini change attribution to tax vs transfer side.

PARTIALengine/runs/tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution

PARTIAL — coef=-0.7659, p=0.0483; claim direction not auto-inferred

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.7659, p=0.0483; claim direction not auto-inferred

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Top marginal income tax rate
  • Government consumption share income
What we checked
  • Inequality disposable income
  • Poverty headcount ratio 3p65
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution
1007550250199520102024BRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disposable_income across 1 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:14Z

Brazilian tax-base evolution 1995-2024 — Real Plan stabilisation 1994 + CPMF transactions tax 1997-2007 + Lula CCT funding 2003-2010 + Dilma fiscal expansion + Bolsonaro tax simplification proposals + Lula 2024 consumption-tax reform — produced disposable-income Gini reduction of at least 3 Gini-points over 1995-2024 driven primarily by transfer-side expansion rather than tax-progressivity. The discriminating test decomposes pretax vs disposable Gini change attribution to tax vs transfer side.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Brazilian disposable-Gini falls by at least 3 Gini- points 1995-2024 AND decomposition attributes more than 60 percent of the fall to transfer-side at p<0.10. REFUTED if disposable-Gini falls less than 1.5 Gini-points or transfer attribution is below 40 percent.

formal test & threshold
test:      Brazil descriptive panel-FE decomposition of pretax-vs-disposable Gini change.

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
year
Sample
1 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Decomposition of pretax-disposable Gini gap attribution to tax vs transfer side. Robustness using Lustig-CEQ-style fiscal-incidence decomposition.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
poverty_headcount_ratio_3p65
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.LMICtier 2
level
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
channel
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
government_consumption_share_gdp
channel
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_brazil_tax_base_evolution

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.7659, p=0.0483; claim direction not auto-inferred

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Brazilian tax-base evolution 1995-2024 — Real Plan stabilisation 1994 + CPMF transactions tax 1997-2007 + Lula CCT funding 2003-2010 + Dilma fiscal expansion + Bolsonaro tax simplification proposals + Lula 2024 consumption-tax reform — produced disposable-income Gini reduction of at least 3 Gini-points over 1995-2024 driven primarily by transfer-side expansion rather than tax-progressivity. The discriminating test decomposes pretax vs disposable Gini change attribution to tax vs transfer side.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Brazilian disposable-Gini falls by at least 3 Gini- points 1995-2024 AND decomposition attributes more than 60 percent of the fall to transfer-side at p<0.10. REFUTED if disposable-Gini falls less than 1.5 Gini-points or transfer attribution is below 40 percent.
  • Falsification test: Brazil descriptive panel-FE decomposition of pretax-vs-disposable Gini change.

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS time-series fallback
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.7659
  • Std error: 0.3878
  • p-value: 0.0483
  • Observations: 28, countries: 1
  • Within R²: 0.915
  • Fixed effects: entity=False, time=False
  • Clustering: HAC(maxlags=4)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.LMIC → poverty_headcount_ratio_3p65 (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (decomposition_channels, publisher=owid, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share_gdp (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:14+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 5.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.