IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity

Chilean post-Pinochet tax progressivity reforms — Concertación-era Aylwin-Frei marginal-rate increases 1990-1995, Bachelet 2014 reform raising corporate rate from 20 to 27 percent + DTA tightening, Boric 2022-2024 reform attempts — produced gradual reductions in the Chilean top-1 pretax income share by at least 1.5 percentage points over 1990-2024 vs Latin-American synthetic comparator pool, with most of the level shift concentrated in 1990-2000 rather than the recent reform attempts.

The discriminating test is the Chilean trajectory vs LATAM synth.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1985 to 2024, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Chl concertacion post 1990
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Top 1pct pretax income share
  • Inequality disposable income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity
1007550250198520052024CHLBRAMEXARGCOLPERURY
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_1pct_pretax_income_share across 7 sampled countries over 1985–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Chilean post-Pinochet tax progressivity reforms — Concertación-era Aylwin-Frei marginal-rate increases 1990-1995, Bachelet 2014 reform raising corporate rate from 20 to 27 percent + DTA tightening, Boric 2022-2024 reform attempts — produced gradual reductions in the Chilean top-1 pretax income share by at least 1.5 percentage points over 1990-2024 vs Latin-American synthetic comparator pool, with most of the level shift concentrated in 1990-2000 rather than the recent reform attempts. The discriminating test is the Chilean trajectory vs LATAM synth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Chilean top-1 share falls by at least 1.5 percentage points 1990-2024 vs LATAM synth control at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or rise in top-1 share over the period at p<0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic-control with LATAM donor pool (BRA, MEX, ARG, COL, PER, URY), treated CHL 1991.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1985 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with LATAM donor pool. Multi-step treatment handled via staggered DiD robustness.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_1pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
chl_concertacion_post_1990
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CHL, year >= 1991tier 5
indicator
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
copper_price_real
control
imf_pcps:PCOPPtier 1
real_yoy_pct_change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivity

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Chilean post-Pinochet tax progressivity reforms — Concertación-era Aylwin-Frei marginal-rate increases 1990-1995, Bachelet 2014 reform raising corporate rate from 20 to 27 percent + DTA tightening, Boric 2022-2024 reform attempts — produced gradual reductions in the Chilean top-1 pretax income share by at least 1.5 percentage points over 1990-2024 vs Latin-American synthetic comparator pool, with most of the level shift concentrated in 1990-2000 rather than the recent reform attempts. The discriminating test is the Chilean trajectory vs LATAM synth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Chilean top-1 share falls by at least 1.5 percentage points 1990-2024 vs LATAM synth control at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or rise in top-1 share over the period at p<0.10.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

Variables resolved

  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1pct_pretax_income_share (outcome, n=3294)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, n=2430)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for CHL, year >= 1991 → chl_concertacion_post_1990 (treatment, n=280)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • imf_pcps:PCOPP → copper_price_real (controls, n=259)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:34+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 5.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.