IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018

Greek Memorandum-era tax hikes 2010-2018 (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent, VAT hikes to 24 percent standard, ENFIA recurring property tax 2014, solidarity surcharge 2011-2019) raised the disposable-income Gini coefficient by at least 1.5 Gini-points relative to Eurozone- comparator synthetic control over the period, with the regressivity driven by VAT and property-tax incidence rather than income-tax progressivity.

The discriminating test is the disposable-income Gini gap vs synth control.

PARTIALengine/runs/tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+3.175, |gap|/pre_sd=3.7, p_perm=0.333 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+3.175, |gap|/pre_sd=3.7, p_perm=0.333 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 2000 to 2020, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Troika grc post 2010
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Inequality disposable income
  • Top 10pct pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018
1007550250200020102020GRCESPITAPRTIRLFRABEL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disposable_income across 9 sampled countries over 2000–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Greek Memorandum-era tax hikes 2010-2018 (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent, VAT hikes to 24 percent standard, ENFIA recurring property tax 2014, solidarity surcharge 2011-2019) raised the disposable-income Gini coefficient by at least 1.5 Gini-points relative to Eurozone- comparator synthetic control over the period, with the regressivity driven by VAT and property-tax incidence rather than income-tax progressivity. The discriminating test is the disposable-income Gini gap vs synth control.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Greek disposable-income Gini rises by at least 1.5 Gini- points vs Eurozone synthetic control over 2010-2018 at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or negative gap at the eight-year horizon.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic-control with Eurozone donor pool, treated GRC 2010.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 2000 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with Eurozone donor pool. Treated GRC 2010. Placebo- in-time at 2005.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
top_10pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-10-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
troika_grc_post_2010
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for GRC, year >= 2010tier 5
indicator
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+3.175, |gap|/pre_sd=3.7, p_perm=0.333 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Greek Memorandum-era tax hikes 2010-2018 (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent, VAT hikes to 24 percent standard, ENFIA recurring property tax 2014, solidarity surcharge 2011-2019) raised the disposable-income Gini coefficient by at least 1.5 Gini-points relative to Eurozone- comparator synthetic control over the period, with the regressivity driven by VAT and property-tax incidence rather than income-tax progressivity. The discriminating test is the disposable-income Gini gap vs synth control.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Greek disposable-income Gini rises by at least 1.5 Gini- points vs Eurozone synthetic control over 2010-2018 at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or negative gap at the eight-year horizon.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: GRC
  • event_year: 2010
  • n_donors: 2
  • donor_weights (top): {'DEU': 0.7408, 'FRA': 0.2592}
  • pre_rmse: 3.591282590839796
  • pre_period_sd: 0.8470537173048712
  • mean_post_gap: 3.174840894041704
  • end_period_gap: 1.5665000268445297
  • post_period_years: [2010, 2020]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.3333333333333333
  • n_placebos: 2
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:33+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 3. Tests the canonical austerity- era regressivity claim against synth control.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.