IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional

India's 2017 GST implementation (replacing fragmented state VAT/excise with unified GST with five rate slabs 0/5/12/18/28 percent) produced a short-run regressive distributional bite — measurable rise in disposable- income Gini over 2017-2019 — followed by partial reversal as input-tax- credit pass-through stabilised by 2021.

The discriminating test is the trajectory of disposable-income Gini before and after the 2017Q3 implementation against a South-Asia synthetic control.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=1, donors=0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=1, donors=0)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Ind gst post 2017
What we checked
  • Inequality disposable income
  • Top 10pct pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional
1007550250201020172023INDBGDLKANPLPAK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disposable_income across 5 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:35Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's 2017 GST implementation (replacing fragmented state VAT/excise with unified GST with five rate slabs 0/5/12/18/28 percent) produced a short-run regressive distributional bite — measurable rise in disposable- income Gini over 2017-2019 — followed by partial reversal as input-tax- credit pass-through stabilised by 2021. The discriminating test is the trajectory of disposable-income Gini before and after the 2017Q3 implementation against a South-Asia synthetic control.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Indian disposable Gini rises by at least 0.5 Gini-points 2017-2019 vs South-Asia synth control AND partial reversal (Gini return to within 0.3pp of 2017 baseline) by 2021 at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable rise or rise persists beyond 2021 at p<0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic-control with South-Asia donor pool (BGD, LKA, NPL, PAK), treated IND 2017.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with South-Asia donor pool. Treated IND 2017Q3.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
top_10pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-10-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
ind_gst_post_2017
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2017tier 5
indicator
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
cpi_inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_india_gst_2017_distributional

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=1, donors=0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's 2017 GST implementation (replacing fragmented state VAT/excise with unified GST with five rate slabs 0/5/12/18/28 percent) produced a short-run regressive distributional bite — measurable rise in disposable- income Gini over 2017-2019 — followed by partial reversal as input-tax- credit pass-through stabilised by 2021. The discriminating test is the trajectory of disposable-income Gini before and after the 2017Q3 implementation against a South-Asia synthetic control.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Indian disposable Gini rises by at least 0.5 Gini-points 2017-2019 vs South-Asia synth control AND partial reversal (Gini return to within 0.3pp of 2017 baseline) by 2021 at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable rise or rise persists beyond 2021 at p<0.10.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=1, donors=0)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, n=2430)
  • owid:top-10-share-of-total-income → top_10pct_pretax_income_share (outcome, n=3294)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2017 → ind_gst_post_2017 (treatment, n=70)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (controls, n=9066)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:35+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 6. GST distributional debate is unresolved in the Indian literature.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.