IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020

South Korea's Moon-era progressive turn 2017-2020 (top marginal rate raised from 40 to 42 then 45 percent, corporate top rate raised from 22 to 25 percent, capital-gains broadening) produced a measurable decline in the Korean top-1 pretax income share by at least 0.5 percentage points over 2017-2022 vs East-Asia synthetic control, consistent with the public-finance literature where rate increases in evasion-constrained but enforcement-intensifying environments produce real distributional effects.

The discriminating test is the synth-control gap on top-1 share.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=10, donors=1)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=10, donors=1)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2005 to 2023, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Kor moon progressive turn post 2017
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Top 1pct pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020
1007550250200520142023KORJPNTWNHKGSGP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_1pct_pretax_income_share across 5 sampled countries over 2005–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T20:09:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

South Korea's Moon-era progressive turn 2017-2020 (top marginal rate raised from 40 to 42 then 45 percent, corporate top rate raised from 22 to 25 percent, capital-gains broadening) produced a measurable decline in the Korean top-1 pretax income share by at least 0.5 percentage points over 2017-2022 vs East-Asia synthetic control, consistent with the public-finance literature where rate increases in evasion-constrained but enforcement-intensifying environments produce real distributional effects. The discriminating test is the synth-control gap on top-1 share.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Korean top-1 share is at least 0.5 percentage points below East-Asia synthetic control at the 2022 horizon at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or positive gap at five-year horizon.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic-control with East-Asia donor pool (JPN, TWN, HKG, SGP), treated KOR 2017.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2005 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with East-Asia donor pool. Treated KOR 2017.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_1pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
kor_moon_progressive_turn_post_2017
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for KOR, year >= 2017tier 5
indicator
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_korea_progressive_turn_2017_2020

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=10, donors=1)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: South Korea's Moon-era progressive turn 2017-2020 (top marginal rate raised from 40 to 42 then 45 percent, corporate top rate raised from 22 to 25 percent, capital-gains broadening) produced a measurable decline in the Korean top-1 pretax income share by at least 0.5 percentage points over 2017-2022 vs East-Asia synthetic control, consistent with the public-finance literature where rate increases in evasion-constrained but enforcement-intensifying environments produce real distributional effects. The discriminating test is the synth-control gap on top-1 share.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Korean top-1 share is at least 0.5 percentage points below East-Asia synthetic control at the 2022 horizon at p<0.10. REFUTED if no detectable gap or positive gap at five-year horizon.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=10, donors=1)

Variables resolved

  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1pct_pretax_income_share (outcome, n=3294)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for KOR, year >= 2017 → kor_moon_progressive_turn_post_2017 (treatment, n=95)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-18T20:09:44+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 5.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.