IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics

Spanish top marginal income tax rate dynamics — Zapatero 2007 cut to 43 percent, Rajoy 2012 hike to 52 percent, Sanchez 2021 hike to 47 percent + IGF (solidarity wealth tax) 2022 — produce top-1 pre-tax income share responses that are smaller in absolute magnitude than the OECD median, consistent with a labour-market with relatively compressed top-decile wage structure (high public-sector and family-firm capture of top income).

The discriminating test is the elasticity of top-1 share to the top-rate change vs OECD median.

PARTIALengine/runs/tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics

PARTIAL — cumulative_effect=-0.1918, h=5, p_h=0.503 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. cumulative_effect=-0.1918, h=5, p_h=0.503 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 14 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a local projections design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Top 1pct pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics
1007550250199520102024ESPFRADEUITAGBRUSACAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_1pct_pretax_income_share across 14 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T08:09:20Z

Spanish top marginal income tax rate dynamics — Zapatero 2007 cut to 43 percent, Rajoy 2012 hike to 52 percent, Sanchez 2021 hike to 47 percent + IGF (solidarity wealth tax) 2022 — produce top-1 pre-tax income share responses that are smaller in absolute magnitude than the OECD median, consistent with a labour-market with relatively compressed top-decile wage structure (high public-sector and family-firm capture of top income). The discriminating test is the elasticity of top-1 share to the top-rate change vs OECD median.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if absolute elasticity of Spanish top-1 share to top marginal rate over 2005-2024 is below 0.4 AND below the OECD median elasticity at p<0.10. REFUTED if elasticity exceeds 0.6 in absolute value or exceeds OECD median at p<0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      Spain time-series + OECD comparator panel local-projections of top-1 share on top marginal rate change with three break events.

Method

Template
local_projections
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
14 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Local-projections of top-1 share on top-rate change, ESP vs OECD pool. Driscoll-Kraay SEs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_1pct_pretax_income_share
outcome
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_inequality_spain_top_rate_dynamics

Verdict: PARTIAL — cumulative_effect=-0.1918, h=5, p_h=0.503 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Spanish top marginal income tax rate dynamics — Zapatero 2007 cut to 43 percent, Rajoy 2012 hike to 52 percent, Sanchez 2021 hike to 47 percent + IGF (solidarity wealth tax) 2022 — produce top-1 pre-tax income share responses that are smaller in absolute magnitude than the OECD median, consistent with a labour-market with relatively compressed top-decile wage structure (high public-sector and family-firm capture of top income). The discriminating test is the elasticity of top-1 share to the top-rate change vs OECD median.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if absolute elasticity of Spanish top-1 share to top marginal rate over 2005-2024 is below 0.4 AND below the OECD median elasticity at p<0.10. REFUTED if elasticity exceeds 0.6 in absolute value or exceeds OECD median at p<0.10.

Local-projections IRF

  • Method: Jordà local projections (TWFE, country-clustered)
  • Cumulative effect: -0.1918
  • Final-horizon p-value: 0.503

| h | β | SE | p | n | |---|---|---|---|---| | 0 | -0.004987 | 0.0371 | 0.894 | 93 | | 1 | -0.02581 | 0.0262 | 0.328 | 88 | | 2 | -0.04342 | 0.0282 | 0.13 | 83 | | 3 | -0.03983 | 0.028 | 0.161 | 78 | | 4 | -0.04364 | 0.034 | 0.206 | 74 | | 5 | -0.03413 | 0.0506 | 0.503 | 70 |

Variables resolved

  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1pct_pretax_income_share (outcome, n=3294)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, n=8071)

Generated by scripts/run_local_projections.py at 2026-05-04T08:09:20+00:00

Notes

Tax-inequality candidate, swarm-S6 batch 3.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.