IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth

Higher broad tax burden proxies predict slower disposable-income and consumption growth.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth

SUPPORTED — coef=-195 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0012

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-195 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0012

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:36Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher broad tax burden proxies predict slower disposable-income and consumption growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-195 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0012

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher broad tax burden proxies predict slower disposable-income and consumption growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_tax_simplicity_disposable_income_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -195
  • Std error: 59.93
  • p-value: 0.0012
  • Observations: 635, countries: 29
  • Within R²: -0.0545
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8501)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:36+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.