IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up

Strict local-content or technology-transfer requirements on FDI slow high-tech productivity convergence over long windows.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'policy_or_institution_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'policy_or_institution_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:42Z

Strict local-content or technology-transfer requirements on FDI slow high-tech productivity convergence over long windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for CHN from 2001 onward; IND from 1991 onward; BRA from 2003 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'policy_or_institution_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Strict local-content or technology-transfer requirements on FDI slow high-tech productivity convergence over long windows.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_tech_transfer_restrictions_slow_catch_up

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'policy_or_institution_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • constructed: 1 for CHN from 2001 onward; IND from 1991 onward; BRA from 2003 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1020)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:42+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.