IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel

In OECD country panels from 1990 to 2023, stricter regulation of temporary and fixed-term contracts predicts lower youth employment rates and slower recovery of youth employment after recessions.

The directional claim is that a one-point increase in OECD temporary-contract EPL strictness is associated with at least a 0.8 percentage-point lower youth employment rate within three years, conditional on permanent-contract EPL, GDP growth, education enrolment, and active labour-market spending.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:EPL_TEMP', 'oecd:EPL_REG']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether temporary contract employment protection rules strictness is actually linked to better or worse youth employment rate from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:EPL_TEMP', 'oecd:EPL_REG']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Temporary contract employment protection rules strictness
  • Permanent contract employment protection rules strictness
What we checked
  • Youth employment rate
  • Youth unemployment rate
  • Youth employment recovery gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel
1007550250199020072023AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show youth_employment_rate across 38 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:03Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In OECD country panels from 1990 to 2023, stricter regulation of temporary and fixed-term contracts predicts lower youth employment rates and slower recovery of youth employment after recessions. The directional claim is that a one-point increase in OECD temporary-contract EPL strictness is associated with at least a 0.8 percentage-point lower youth employment rate within three years, conditional on permanent-contract EPL, GDP growth, education enrolment, and active labour-market spending.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if temporary-contract EPL is non-negative for youth employment or non-positive for youth unemployment in the primary specification, or if recession-recovery local projections show no slower recovery in high-restriction country-years. If stricter temporary-contract rules only reduce temporary work while increasing permanent youth jobs, the claim is refuted rather than partially supported.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_temporary_contract_epl_youth_hiring
threshold: beta_temp_epl_youth_employment <= -0.8pp per EPL point and beta_temp_epl_youth_unemployment > 0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE model with temporary-contract EPL and permanent-contract EPL entered jointly. Recession-recovery robustness estimates local projections of youth employment gaps at horizons one to three after recession troughs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
youth_employment_rate
outcome
ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_Atier 2
level_pct
youth_unemployment_rate
outcome
ilostat:UNE_2EAP_SEX_AGE_RT_Atier 2
level_pct
youth_employment_recovery_gap
outcome
ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_Atier 2
deviation_from_pre_recession_peak
temporary_contract_epl_strictness
treatment
oecd:EPL_TEMPtier 2
level
permanent_contract_epl_strictness
treatment
oecd:EPL_REGtier 2
level
real_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level_pct
tertiary_enrolment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRRtier 2
level_pct
almp_spending_gdp
control
oecd:DSD_SOCXtier 2
level_pct_gdp
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — temporary_contract_restrictions_youth_hiring_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:EPL_TEMP', 'oecd:EPL_REG']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In OECD country panels from 1990 to 2023, stricter regulation of temporary and fixed-term contracts predicts lower youth employment rates and slower recovery of youth employment after recessions. The directional claim is that a one-point increase in OECD temporary-contract EPL strictness is associated with at least a 0.8 percentage-point lower youth employment rate within three years, conditional on permanent-contract EPL, GDP growth, education enrolment, and active labour-market spending.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if temporary-contract EPL is non-negative for youth employment or non-positive for youth unemployment in the primary specification, or if recession-recovery local projections show no slower recovery in high-restriction country-years. If stricter temporary-contract rules only reduce temporary work while increasing permanent youth jobs, the claim is refuted rather than partially supported.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_temporary_contract_epl_youth_hiring

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:EPL_TEMP', 'oecd:EPL_REG']

Variables resolved

  • ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_A → youth_employment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • ilostat:UNE_2EAP_SEX_AGE_RT_A → youth_unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=10188)
  • ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_A → youth_employment_recovery_gap (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRR → tertiary_enrolment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7217)
  • oecd:DSD_SOCX@DF_SOCX_AGG → almp_spending_gdp (controls, publisher=oecd, n=1404)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:EPL_TEMP (treatment, name=temporary_contract_epl_strictness) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:EPL_REG (treatment, name=permanent_contract_epl_strictness) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:03+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate Worker C spec. The empirical challenge is to claims that labour-market control can protect insiders and entrants without reducing the entry margin.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.