IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling

In the cross-country panel of advanced economies post-1980, the top-1 percent share of total pre-tax national income exhibits a structural break upward in countries that adopted the Anglo-American liberalisation package (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and a flat-or-mildly- rising trajectory in coordinated-market economies (Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands), even though both groups experienced comparable real GDP per capita growth.

The Marxian / heterodox reading is that aggregate growth is not the binding constraint on top-share dynamics — institutional and policy choice is. The hypothesis tests this by jointly regressing top-1 share growth on the standard control set and a "liberalisation cluster" indicator, predicting that top-1 share rose at least 5 percentage points more in the Anglo cluster than in the coordinated cluster 1980-2020.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.1813 (sign matches claim -), p=4.31e-06

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-0.1813 (sign matches claim -), p=4.31e-06

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Anglo cluster indicator
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Top 1 share pretax income
  • Top 10 share pretax income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling
1007550250198020002020USAGBRCANAUSNZLIRLDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_1_share_pretax_income across 20 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:14Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In the cross-country panel of advanced economies post-1980, the top-1 percent share of total pre-tax national income exhibits a structural break upward in countries that adopted the Anglo-American liberalisation package (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and a flat-or-mildly- rising trajectory in coordinated-market economies (Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands), even though both groups experienced comparable real GDP per capita growth. The Marxian / heterodox reading is that aggregate growth is not the binding constraint on top-share dynamics — institutional and policy choice is. The hypothesis tests this by jointly regressing top-1 share growth on the standard control set and a "liberalisation cluster" indicator, predicting that top-1 share rose at least 5 percentage points more in the Anglo cluster than in the coordinated cluster 1980-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if the Anglo-cluster post-1980 differential coefficient is statistically zero or negative (p > 0.10), OR if the differential disappears once conditioning on top marginal income tax rates and union density (i.e. the "cluster" effect collapses into observable policy parameters and is not a residual institutional-package effect). Symmetric falsification: if the top-1 share rose in the coordinated cluster by within 1 percentage point of the Anglo cluster's rise, the institutional-divergence claim is undercut.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_anglo_cluster_post_1980_differential_with_policy_conditioning
threshold: coef(anglo_post_1980) >= +5 percentage-points 1980-2020 cumulative AND coefficient survives top_marginal_rate + union_density conditioning AND p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE regression of top-1 pre-tax share on Anglo-cluster indicator (interacted with post-1980 dummy), top marginal rate, real GDP per capita, union density, financial-sector share, and standard controls. Country and year FE, country-clustered SEs. Robustness: Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered-treatment DiD with cluster onset year-staggered (USA 1980, UK 1979, NZL 1984, AUS 1983, CAN 1984).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_1_share_pretax_income
outcome
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
top_10_share_pretax_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
anglo_cluster_indicator
treatment
dates:anglo_liberalisation_clustertier 4
indicator
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level
real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
union_density
control
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
financial_sector_va_share
control
oecd:OECD.SDD.NADtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — top_1pct_income_share_growth_decoupling

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-0.1813 (sign matches claim -), p=4.31e-06

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In the cross-country panel of advanced economies post-1980, the top-1 percent share of total pre-tax national income exhibits a structural break upward in countries that adopted the Anglo-American liberalisation package (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and a flat-or-mildly- rising trajectory in coordinated-market economies (Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands), even though both groups experienced comparable real GDP per capita growth. The Marxian / heterodox reading is that aggregate growth is not the binding constraint on top-share dynamics — institutional and policy choice is. The hypothesis tests this by jointly regressing top-1 share growth on the standard control set and a "liberalisation cluster" indicator, predicting that top-1 share rose at least 5 percentage points more in the Anglo cluster than in the coordinated cluster 1980-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if the Anglo-cluster post-1980 differential coefficient is statistically zero or negative (p > 0.10), OR if the differential disappears once conditioning on top marginal income tax rates and union density (i.e. the "cluster" effect collapses into observable policy parameters and is not a residual institutional-package effect). Symmetric falsification: if the top-1 share rose in the coordinated cluster by within 1 percentage point of the Anglo cluster's rise, the institutional-divergence claim is undercut.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_anglo_cluster_post_1980_differential_with_policy_conditioning

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.1813
  • Std error: 0.03738
  • p-value: 4.31e-06
  • Observations: 150, countries: 5
  • Within R²: -0.134
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1_share_pretax_income (outcome, publisher=owid, n=3294)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → top_10_share_pretax_income (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • dates:anglo_liberalisation_cluster → anglo_cluster_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=820)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, publisher=owid, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_TUD_CBC@DF_TUD,1.0 → union_density (controls, publisher=oecd, n=1825)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.SDD.NAD,DSD_NAMAIN1@DF_TABLE3,1.0 (controls, name=financial_sector_va_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:14+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate, not pre_registered. On promotion, secure a registered WID fetcher rather than the OWID mirror, document the cluster-onset dates, and pin the OECD financial-sector dataflow URN.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.