IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth

The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), with the goods agreement effective 2010-01-01 for the original ASEAN-6, raised ASEAN-6 merchandise-export intensity over the 2010-2019 window relative to non-ASEAN comparator economies.

The bilateral-tariff-removal claim is that ACFTA's elimination of most tariffs on ASEAN-6 exports to China shifted regional supply-chain participation toward Chinese final-assembly demand.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth

PARTIAL — ATT=+3.31, p=0.324, N=295, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=+3.31, p=0.324, N=295, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 15 country or place units from 2000 to 2019, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Acfta 2010 indicator
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Log manufacturing value added
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth
1007550250200020102019BRNIDNMYSPHLSGPTHAVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 15 sampled countries over 2000–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:28:10Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), with the goods agreement effective 2010-01-01 for the original ASEAN-6, raised ASEAN-6 merchandise-export intensity over the 2010-2019 window relative to non-ASEAN comparator economies. The bilateral-tariff-removal claim is that ACFTA's elimination of most tariffs on ASEAN-6 exports to China shifted regional supply-chain participation toward Chinese final-assembly demand.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on merchandise-exports over h=5y is positive and significant at p<0.10. PARTIAL if ATT is positive but insignificant. REFUTED if ATT is negative at p<0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_acfta_2010_export_intensity
threshold: PRIMARY: cs_did_ATT(merchandise_exports, h=5y) > 0 at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: ex-SGP coefficient retained at >=0.6 × full.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
15 countries · 2000 – 2019
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with 2010 ASEAN-6 cohort and 2015 CLMV cohort. Donor pool = non-ACFTA emerging Asian and Latin American economies. Robustness: drop SGP (financial- centre outlier inflates trade ratios).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
acfta_2010_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for original ASEAN-6 from 2010-01-01; VNM, MMR, KHM, LAO from 2015-01-01tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=+3.31, p=0.324, N=295, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), with the goods agreement effective 2010-01-01 for the original ASEAN-6, raised ASEAN-6 merchandise-export intensity over the 2010-2019 window relative to non-ASEAN comparator economies. The bilateral-tariff-removal claim is that ACFTA's elimination of most tariffs on ASEAN-6 exports to China shifted regional supply-chain participation toward Chinese final-assembly demand.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on merchandise-exports over h=5y is positive and significant at p<0.10. PARTIAL if ATT is positive but insignificant. REFUTED if ATT is negative at p<0.10.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: 3.3095965773036653
  • std_error: 3.354671570693728
  • p_value: 0.3238566636254986
  • n_obs: 295
  • n_countries: 15
  • r_squared_within: 0.9752506565209791
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 1
  • cohort_years: [2010]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, n=8624)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, n=10428)

Missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for original ASEAN-6 from 2010-01-01; VNM, MMR, KHM, LAO from 2015-01-01 (treatment)
  • imf:REER (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:28:10+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.