IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), effective 2015-12-20, raised Australian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and resource-export intensity over the 2016-2019 pre-COVID window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of resource-exporting economies.

The post-2020 China-Australia trade-tension period (informal sanctions on Australian wine, barley, coal) is treated as a separate post-2020 sensitivity check.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-26.27, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.4 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-26.27, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.4 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 2005 to 2019, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Chafta indicator
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Trade openness pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015
1007550250200520122019AUSNZLCANCHLNORBRAZAF
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 10 sampled countries over 2005–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:33Z

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), effective 2015-12-20, raised Australian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and resource-export intensity over the 2016-2019 pre-COVID window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of resource-exporting economies. The post-2020 China-Australia trade-tension period (informal sanctions on Australian wine, barley, coal) is treated as a separate post-2020 sensitivity check.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SC gap on merchandise-exports-share is positive by 2018. PARTIAL if positive but small (<2 pp). REFUTED if gap is negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_australia_chafta_2015
threshold: PRIMARY: SC_gap(merchandise_exports_share, 2018) > 0.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 2005 – 2019
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-control estimator for Australia against a resource- exporter donor pool. Pre-treatment 2005-2015; post-treatment 2016-2019.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
chafta_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for AUS from 2016-01-01tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_chafta_australia_china_2015

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-26.27, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.4 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), effective 2015-12-20, raised Australian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and resource-export intensity over the 2016-2019 pre-COVID window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of resource-exporting economies. The post-2020 China-Australia trade-tension period (informal sanctions on Australian wine, barley, coal) is treated as a separate post-2020 sensitivity check.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SC gap on merchandise-exports-share is positive by 2018. PARTIAL if positive but small (<2 pp). REFUTED if gap is negative.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: AUS
  • event_year: 2015
  • n_donors: 9
  • donor_weights (top): {'NOR': 0.9427, 'ZAF': 0.0573, 'NZL': 0.0, 'CAN': 0.0, 'CHL': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 27.34787697698238
  • pre_period_sd: 1.7236620104157763
  • mean_post_gap: -26.26808495524574
  • end_period_gap: -23.92077744669846
  • post_period_years: [2015, 2019]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.4
  • n_placebos: 9
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14131)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.