IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012

The Colombia-United States Trade Promotion Agreement, effective 2012-05-15, did not produce a measurable trade-openness or manufacturing-export acceleration for Colombia over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window.

Pre-existing ATPDEA preferential access (1991- 2012) had already provided substantial duty-free access to the US market for most Colombian exports; formalisation under the FTA largely codified existing flows.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012

SUPPORTED — COL openness change was within +1.4pp of comparator change

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. COL openness change was within +1.4pp of comparator change

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2002 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012
1007550250200220112019COLPERECUCHLMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 2002–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:51Z

The Colombia-United States Trade Promotion Agreement, effective 2012-05-15, did not produce a measurable trade-openness or manufacturing-export acceleration for Colombia over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window. Pre-existing ATPDEA preferential access (1991- 2012) had already provided substantial duty-free access to the US market for most Colombian exports; formalisation under the FTA largely codified existing flows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (null) if Colombia trade-openness change 2012-2019 is within +/- 3 pp of comparator change. REFUTED if Colombia outperforms by more than 5 pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_colombia_us_fta_2012_null
threshold: PRIMARY: |delta_openness(COL) - delta_openness(comparator_mean)| <= 3 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 2002 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison. Colombia 2012-2019 vs Andean comparator (Peru, which had its own US-FTA from 2009) and broader Latin American mean.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_colombia_us_fta_2012

Verdict: SUPPORTED — COL openness change was within +1.4pp of comparator change

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Colombia-United States Trade Promotion Agreement, effective 2012-05-15, did not produce a measurable trade-openness or manufacturing-export acceleration for Colombia over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window. Pre-existing ATPDEA preferential access (1991- 2012) had already provided substantial duty-free access to the US market for most Colombian exports; formalisation under the FTA largely codified existing flows.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED (null) if Colombia trade-openness change 2012-2019 is within +/- 3 pp of comparator change. REFUTED if Colombia outperforms by more than 5 pp.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_colombia_us_fta_2012_null

Comparison

  • shape: registered_colombia_us_fta_null_gate
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: COL
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'COL', 'pre': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [2002, 2011], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 36.75840048665263, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2002, 'year_max': 2011}, 'post': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [2012, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 37.281110535058424, 'n_years': 8, 'year_min': 2012, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 0.5227100484057914}
  • peer_deltas: [{'country': 'PER', 'pre': {'country': 'PER', 'window': [2002, 2011], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 48.38471429452834, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2002, 'year_max': 2011}, 'post': {'country': 'PER', 'window': [2012, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 47.862536824545984, 'n_years': 8, 'year_min': 2012, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': -0.5221774699823527}, {'country': 'ECU', 'pre': {'country': 'ECU', 'window': [2002, 2011], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 62.763053630502256, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2002, 'year_max': 2011}, 'post': {'country': 'ECU', 'window': [2012, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 52.49188224765388, 'n_years': 8, 'year_min': 2012, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': -10.27117138284838}, {'country': 'CHL', 'pre': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [2002, 2011], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 71.03798056913104, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2002, 'year_max': 2011}, 'post': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [2012, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 60.76949933750055, 'n_years': 8, 'year_min': 2012, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': -10.268481231630489}, {'country': 'MEX', 'pre': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [2002, 2011], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 54.0646947132351, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2002, 'year_max': 2011}, 'post': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [2012, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 71.47225671732105, 'n_years': 8, 'year_min': 2012, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 17.407562004085946}]
  • peer_mean_delta_pp: -0.9135670200938186
  • differential_change_pp: 1.43627706849961
  • support_gate_abs_differential_le_3pp: True
  • refute_gate_outperformance_gt_5pp: False

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.