IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), effective 2018-12-30 for the first six ratifying members (AUS, CAN, JPN, MEX, NZL, SGP), produced modest measurable trade-creation effects among CPTPP members in the 2019-2024 window.

Because the agreement was truncated by US withdrawal (2017) and the COVID-19 trade disruption dominated the early implementation window, the effect is expected to be small and difficult to identify cleanly.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade

PARTIAL — ATT=+5.971, p=0.0588, N=255, treated_countries=1; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=+5.971, p=0.0588, N=255, treated_countries=1; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 17 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Cptpp indicator
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade
1007550250201020172024AUSCANJPNMEXNZLSGPBRN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 17 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:28:10Z

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), effective 2018-12-30 for the first six ratifying members (AUS, CAN, JPN, MEX, NZL, SGP), produced modest measurable trade-creation effects among CPTPP members in the 2019-2024 window. Because the agreement was truncated by US withdrawal (2017) and the COVID-19 trade disruption dominated the early implementation window, the effect is expected to be small and difficult to identify cleanly.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if cs_did_ATT on trade-openness over h=3y is positive at the point estimate, regardless of significance. PARTIAL if positive but CI contains zero. REFUTED if the point estimate is negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_cptpp_2018_trade_openness
threshold: PRIMARY: cs_did_ATT(trade_openness, h=3y) > 0 (point estimate). METHOD_VALID: WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS available for all units 2010-2024.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
17 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with 2019 cohort. Donor pool = Pacific-Rim non-CPTPP economies (USA, KOR, IDN, THA, COL). Pre-trends 2010-2018. Effect size expected to be small; confidence intervals will likely span zero. Reports the point estimate and CI honestly.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
cptpp_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for first-six ratifying members from 2019-01-01; staggered for later ratifierstier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_cptpp_2018_pacific_rim_trade

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=+5.971, p=0.0588, N=255, treated_countries=1; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), effective 2018-12-30 for the first six ratifying members (AUS, CAN, JPN, MEX, NZL, SGP), produced modest measurable trade-creation effects among CPTPP members in the 2019-2024 window. Because the agreement was truncated by US withdrawal (2017) and the COVID-19 trade disruption dominated the early implementation window, the effect is expected to be small and difficult to identify cleanly.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if cs_did_ATT on trade-openness over h=3y is positive at the point estimate, regardless of significance. PARTIAL if positive but CI contains zero. REFUTED if the point estimate is negative.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: 5.971419707193779
  • std_error: 3.1598639886531545
  • p_value: 0.05878857768444149
  • n_obs: 255
  • n_countries: 17
  • r_squared_within: 0.9858906631897276
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 1
  • cohort_years: [2019]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, n=10428)

Missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for first-six ratifying members from 2019-01-01; staggered for later ratifiers (treatment)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:28:10+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.