IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade

Egypt's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2004, Agadir Agreement 2007, COMESA Free Trade Area 1998 with full implementation 2009, US Qualifying Industrial Zones 2004 enabling duty-free apparel exports to the US under Israeli content rules) raised Egyptian trade-openness modestly over 2000-2010 before the 2011 revolution and subsequent macroeconomic instability eroded the gains.

The descriptive claim is a positive 2000-2010 trajectory with stagnation or reversal post-2011.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade

SUPPORTED — openness rose +16.1pp by 2007-2010, then post-2011 mean sat -21.3pp below peak

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. openness rose +16.1pp by 2007-2010, then post-2011 mean sat -21.3pp below peak

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1995 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade
1007550250199520072019EGYMARTUNJORTUR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 1995–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Egypt's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2004, Agadir Agreement 2007, COMESA Free Trade Area 1998 with full implementation 2009, US Qualifying Industrial Zones 2004 enabling duty-free apparel exports to the US under Israeli content rules) raised Egyptian trade-openness modestly over 2000-2010 before the 2011 revolution and subsequent macroeconomic instability eroded the gains. The descriptive claim is a positive 2000-2010 trajectory with stagnation or reversal post-2011.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) EGY trade-openness rose by >=5 pp from 1995- 1999 mean to 2007-2010 mean, AND (b) 2015-2019 mean is below or close to the 2007-2010 peak (showing post-revolution stagnation/reversal). REFUTED if the 2007-2010 peak did not materialise.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_egypt_fta_cascade_pre_post_revolution
threshold: PRIMARY: openness_change(1995-99 -> 2007-10) >= +5 pp AND openness(2015-19) <= openness(2007-10) + 2 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison. Reports EGY trade-openness pre-FTA cascade (1995-1999), peak (2007-2010), and post-revolution (2015-2019) means.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_egypt_fta_cascade

Verdict: SUPPORTED — openness rose +16.1pp by 2007-2010, then post-2011 mean sat -21.3pp below peak

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Egypt's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2004, Agadir Agreement 2007, COMESA Free Trade Area 1998 with full implementation 2009, US Qualifying Industrial Zones 2004 enabling duty-free apparel exports to the US under Israeli content rules) raised Egyptian trade-openness modestly over 2000-2010 before the 2011 revolution and subsequent macroeconomic instability eroded the gains. The descriptive claim is a positive 2000-2010 trajectory with stagnation or reversal post-2011.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) EGY trade-openness rose by >=5 pp from 1995- 1999 mean to 2007-2010 mean, AND (b) 2015-2019 mean is below or close to the 2007-2010 peak (showing post-revolution stagnation/reversal). REFUTED if the 2007-2010 peak did not materialise.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_egypt_fta_cascade_pre_post_revolution

Comparison

  • shape: registered_egypt_fta_peak_reversal_gate
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: EGY
  • pre_1995_1999: {'country': 'EGY', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 44.24420848371792, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}
  • peak_2007_2010: {'country': 'EGY', 'window': [2007, 2010], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 60.312073328617025, 'n_years': 4, 'year_min': 2007, 'year_max': 2010}
  • post_2015_2019: {'country': 'EGY', 'window': [2015, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 38.99193263962819, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 2015, 'year_max': 2019}
  • rise_pre_to_peak_pp: 16.067864844899105
  • post_minus_peak_pp: -21.320140688988836
  • support_gate_rise_ge_5pp: True
  • support_gate_post_close_or_below_peak_plus_2pp: True
  • refute_gate_peak_did_not_materialise: False

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.