IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), effective 2020-08-01, raised Vietnamese merchandise-exports-to-GDP and manufacturing value-added relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of South-East Asian comparator economies in the 2020-2024 window.

Even controlling for COVID-19 supply-chain reshuffling that benefited Vietnam disproportionately, the EVFTA bilateral effect should be detectable.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+21.11, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.429 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+21.11, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.429 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Evfta indicator
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • Trade openness pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020
1007550250201020172024VNMIDNTHAPHLMYSBGDKHM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 8 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T17:29:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), effective 2020-08-01, raised Vietnamese merchandise-exports-to-GDP and manufacturing value-added relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of South-East Asian comparator economies in the 2020-2024 window. Even controlling for COVID-19 supply-chain reshuffling that benefited Vietnam disproportionately, the EVFTA bilateral effect should be detectable.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SC gap on log manufacturing value-added is positive in 2024 AND the gap survives dropping 2020-2021 from post-window. PARTIAL if positive but driven primarily by 2020-2021. REFUTED if negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_vietnam_evfta_2020
threshold: PRIMARY: SC_gap(log_manufacturing_va, 2024) > 0 in both full and ex-COVID-2020-21 specifications.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-control estimator for Vietnam against a SE-Asian donor pool. Pre-treatment 2010-2019; post-treatment 2020-2024. Sensitivity check: drop 2020-2021 from post-window to test whether the gap is COVID-supply-chain-reshuffling-driven.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
evfta_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for VNM from 2020-08-01tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_evfta_vietnam_eu_2020

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+21.11, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.429 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), effective 2020-08-01, raised Vietnamese merchandise-exports-to-GDP and manufacturing value-added relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of South-East Asian comparator economies in the 2020-2024 window. Even controlling for COVID-19 supply-chain reshuffling that benefited Vietnam disproportionately, the EVFTA bilateral effect should be detectable.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SC gap on log manufacturing value-added is positive in 2024 AND the gap survives dropping 2020-2021 from post-window. PARTIAL if positive but driven primarily by 2020-2021. REFUTED if negative.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: VNM
  • event_year: 2020
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'KHM': 1.0, 'IDN': 0.0, 'THA': 0.0, 'PHL': 0.0, 'MYS': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 18.672781190242166
  • pre_period_sd: 10.350719555280744
  • mean_post_gap: 21.10548619628094
  • end_period_gap: 18.790636882077095
  • post_period_years: [2020, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.42857142857142855
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, n=8624)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10714)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for VNM from 2020-08-01 → evfta_indicator (treatment, n=120)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, n=10428)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T17:29:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.