IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade

The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), effective 2012-03-15, raised bilateral US-Korea merchandise trade volumes and Korean manufacturing-export share to GDP relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable East Asian and OECD economies over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window.

The renegotiation in 2018 (KORUS 2.0) is treated as part of the post-treatment window.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+18.52, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.556 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+18.52, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.556 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 2002 to 2019, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Korus indicator
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Trade openness pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade
1007550250200220112019KORJPNTWNSGPMYSTHAAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 10 sampled countries over 2002–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:33Z

The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), effective 2012-03-15, raised bilateral US-Korea merchandise trade volumes and Korean manufacturing-export share to GDP relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable East Asian and OECD economies over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window. The renegotiation in 2018 (KORUS 2.0) is treated as part of the post-treatment window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SC gap on trade-openness exceeds +5 percentage points by 2018 with placebo p-value < 0.20. PARTIAL if SC gap is positive but smaller. REFUTED if the SC gap is negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_korea_korus_2012
threshold: PRIMARY: SC_gap(trade_openness, 2018) >= 5 pp AND placebo p < 0.20.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 2002 – 2019
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-control estimator for Korea against an East-Asian / OECD donor pool. Pre-treatment fitting 2002-2011; post- treatment evaluation 2012-2019. Placebo permutation across donor pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
korus_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for KOR from 2012-03-15tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_korus_2012_us_korea_trade

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+18.52, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.556 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), effective 2012-03-15, raised bilateral US-Korea merchandise trade volumes and Korean manufacturing-export share to GDP relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable East Asian and OECD economies over the 2012-2019 pre-COVID window. The renegotiation in 2018 (KORUS 2.0) is treated as part of the post-treatment window.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SC gap on trade-openness exceeds +5 percentage points by 2018 with placebo p-value < 0.20. PARTIAL if SC gap is positive but smaller. REFUTED if the SC gap is negative.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: KOR
  • event_year: 2012
  • n_donors: 8
  • donor_weights (top): {'MEX': 0.7552, 'JPN': 0.2448, 'SGP': 0.0, 'MYS': 0.0, 'THA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 29.89489350241094
  • pre_period_sd: 14.911453896187458
  • mean_post_gap: 18.519008729997744
  • end_period_gap: 4.32579961605316
  • post_period_years: [2012, 2019]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5555555555555556
  • n_placebos: 8
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14131)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.