The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01…

Pre-registration

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first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:40Z

Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01, produced negligible measurable trade-creation effects on Singapore aggregate trade ratios because Singapore's trade was already extremely liberalised under unilateral free-port policy and pre-existing ASEAN-China integration. The null-prediction is that Singapore's trade- openness trajectory should not show a structural break at 2009.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (null) if the SGP-vs-HKG difference in trade-openness change from 2004-2008 to 2009-2013 is within +/- 5 pp. REFUTED (rejecting the null) if SGP shows a >5 pp positive gap relative to HKG.

formal test & threshold

test:      descriptive_sgp_vs_hkg_2009_fta_break
threshold: PRIMARY: |delta_openness(SGP) - delta_openness(HKG)| <= 5 pp.

Method

Template: descriptive
Clustering: none
Sample: 6 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type: descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Pre/post-2009 mean trade- openness comparison for Singapore vs Hong Kong (the natural comparator: similar free-port, similar pre-existing liberalisation, no equivalent bilateral with China).

Data

Variable	Source	Transform
trade_openness_pct_gdp outcome	world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2	level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp outcome	world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2	level
sg_chn_fta_indicator treatment	constructed:indicator = 1 for SGP from 2009-01-01tier 5	indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment control	world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2	log_level_at_treatment_minus_1

● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01, produced negligible measurable trade-creation effects on Singapore aggregate trade ratios because Singapore's trade was already extremely liberalised under unilateral free-port policy and pre-existing ASEAN-China integration.

In ordinary language