IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024

Trade openness predicts higher real household consumption over long windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024

PARTIAL — coef=-8.973, p=0.401 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-8.973, p=0.401 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024
1007550250198020022023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:04Z

Trade openness predicts higher real household consumption over long windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-8.973, p=0.401 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Trade openness predicts higher real household consumption over long windows.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_trade_openness_consumer_welfare_1980_2024

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -8.973
  • Std error: 10.68
  • p-value: 0.401
  • Observations: 773, countries: 31
  • Within R²: -0.0864
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8501)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:04+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.