IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel

Countries with higher trade openness subsequently show faster diffusion of frontier innovation, measured by resident patent applications and high-technology export intensity.

The market mechanism is that open import and export channels expose firms to foreign inputs, embodied technology, and competitive pressure; the state-allocation counterclaim is that innovation diffusion depends more on protected domestic planning than on market access.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.00191, p=0.497 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the policy environment make innovation easier to fund, build, and scale, or does it slow down useful new technology?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.00191, p=0.497 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Lagged trade openness
What we checked
  • Resident patent applications per million
  • High technology exports share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel
1007550250199520092023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show resident_patent_applications_per_million across 41 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:43Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries with higher trade openness subsequently show faster diffusion of frontier innovation, measured by resident patent applications and high-technology export intensity. The market mechanism is that open import and export channels expose firms to foreign inputs, embodied technology, and competitive pressure; the state-allocation counterclaim is that innovation diffusion depends more on protected domestic planning than on market access.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on lagged_trade_openness is positive for resident_patent_applications_per_million at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE depending on data coverage.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Primary regression uses two-way fixed effects with lagged trade openness. The high-technology export outcome is a secondary robustness check because it can mechanically reflect trade composition as well as innovation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
resident_patent_applications_per_million
outcome
wipo:patent_applications_residenttier 2
log_per_million_population
high_technology_exports_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
lagged_trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
one_year_lag_level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.00191, p=0.497 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries with higher trade openness subsequently show faster diffusion of frontier innovation, measured by resident patent applications and high-technology export intensity. The market mechanism is that open import and export channels expose firms to foreign inputs, embodied technology, and competitive pressure; the state-allocation counterclaim is that innovation diffusion depends more on protected domestic planning than on market access.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the coefficient on lagged_trade_openness is positive for resident_patent_applications_per_million at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE depending on data coverage.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_trade_openness_patent_diffusion_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.00191
  • Std error: 0.002811
  • p-value: 0.497
  • Observations: 733, countries: 33
  • Within R²: 0.44
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wipo:patent_applications_resident → resident_patent_applications_per_million (outcome, publisher=wipo, n=4180)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_technology_exports_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → lagged_trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:43+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Uses common publishers already present in the repo: world_bank_wdi, wgi, and wipo. Later causal upgrades could use treaty accession or tariff-reform events.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.