IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024

Trinidad and Tobago's 2008-2024 macro trajectory shows the classic hydrocarbon-dependent small-economy pattern: real GDP, fiscal balance, and current account move with global oil and gas prices, with limited non-hydrocarbon-economy diversification despite repeated policy efforts.

The pre-registered claim is (a) the cumulative log GDP per capita 2008-2024 (TTO) is below the Caribbean median, AND (b) cumulative real-GDP growth co-moves strongly with the Brent-Henry-Hub composite price (correlation > 0.6 on annual data 2008-2024), AND (c) Heritage Stabilisation Fund withdrawals between 2014 and 2020 indicate the fiscal cushion was used reactively. The mechanism is the Dutch-disease and price-cycle vulnerability of a small open hydrocarbon-export economy.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2008 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant
  • Hydrocarbon rents share income
  • Gas rents share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024
1007550250200820162024TTOJAMBRBBHSDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant across 5 sampled countries over 2008–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:04Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Trinidad and Tobago's 2008-2024 macro trajectory shows the classic hydrocarbon-dependent small-economy pattern: real GDP, fiscal balance, and current account move with global oil and gas prices, with limited non-hydrocarbon-economy diversification despite repeated policy efforts. The pre-registered claim is (a) the cumulative log GDP per capita 2008-2024 (TTO) is below the Caribbean median, AND (b) cumulative real-GDP growth co-moves strongly with the Brent-Henry-Hub composite price (correlation > 0.6 on annual data 2008-2024), AND (c) Heritage Stabilisation Fund withdrawals between 2014 and 2020 indicate the fiscal cushion was used reactively. The mechanism is the Dutch-disease and price-cycle vulnerability of a small open hydrocarbon-export economy.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2008-2024 (TTO) is above Caribbean median, OR (b) annual correlation of TTO real-GDP growth with Brent-HH composite is below 0.40, OR (c) the TTO-indicator-times-oil-price interaction in panel_fe is not significant at p < 0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_with_oil_interaction_plus_correlation
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc(TTO, 2008-2024) <= Caribbean_median AND corr(real_gdp_growth(TTO), brent_hh_composite, 2008-2024) >= 0.40 AND panel_fe interaction TTO_dummy x oil_price significant at p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2008 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of log_gdp_pc on country and year FE plus TTO-indicator interacted with the Brent-HH composite price. Secondary: descriptive trajectory of fiscal-balance and current- account around the 2014-2016 oil-price collapse.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZStier 2
level
gas_rents_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZStier 2
level
current_account_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
level
fiscal_balance_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
natural_gas_price
control
fred:DHHNGSPtier 1
log_level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trinidad_tobago_oil_dependence_2008_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Trinidad and Tobago's 2008-2024 macro trajectory shows the classic hydrocarbon-dependent small-economy pattern: real GDP, fiscal balance, and current account move with global oil and gas prices, with limited non-hydrocarbon-economy diversification despite repeated policy efforts. The pre-registered claim is (a) the cumulative log GDP per capita 2008-2024 (TTO) is below the Caribbean median, AND (b) cumulative real-GDP growth co-moves strongly with the Brent-Henry-Hub composite price (correlation > 0.6 on annual data 2008-2024), AND (c) Heritage Stabilisation Fund withdrawals between 2014 and 2020 indicate the fiscal cushion was used reactively. The mechanism is the Dutch-disease and price-cycle vulnerability of a small open hydrocarbon-export economy.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2008-2024 (TTO) is above Caribbean median, OR (b) annual correlation of TTO real-GDP growth with Brent-HH composite is below 0.40, OR (c) the TTO-indicator-times-oil-price interaction in panel_fe is not significant at p < 0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_with_oil_interaction_plus_correlation

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS → hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10619)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS → gas_rents_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10608)
  • world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS → current_account_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7621)
  • imf:GGXCNL_NGDP → fiscal_balance_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8848)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=200)
  • fred:DHHNGSP → natural_gas_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=150)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=400)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:04+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the resource-curse cycle in a Caribbean hydrocarbon exporter.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.