IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect

Trump tariff policy 2018-2019 did not reshore US manufacturing output to a meaningful degree, and tariff incidence fell on US importers and consumers, consistent with post-Keynesian emphasis on demand-side rather than price-competition factors in trade flows.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2014 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for hs code and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trump tariff 2018 indicator
What we checked
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • Manufacturing employment thousands
  • Tariffed goods import value log
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect
1007550250201420192023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_manufacturing_value_added across 1 sampled countries over 2014–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Post-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:02:35Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Trump tariff policy 2018-2019 did not reshore US manufacturing output to a meaningful degree, and tariff incidence fell on US importers and consumers, consistent with post-Keynesian emphasis on demand-side rather than price-competition factors in trade flows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      DiD on US 2018-19 tariffed-good imports vs untariffed control with manufacturing-employment outcome h=12..36 months; reshoring effect <2% with p<0.10 supports null-reshoring claim; price pass-through >0.8 confirms incidence.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
hs_code, year
Clustering
hs_code
Sample
1 countries · 2014 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

DiD with staggered tariff adoption (Section 232 2018Q1, Section 301 2018Q3 waves) using Callaway-Sant'Anna estimator. Treated unit = tariffed HS-code goods; control = untariffed HS-code goods. Outcome 1 = manufacturing employment / VA in tariffed-good-producing US industries (reshoring test); outcome 2 = import unit value (pass-through test, Amiti-Redding-Weinstein style). Caveat: 2020-2021 COVID demand shock confounds 12-36-month reshoring window — primary spec ends 2019Q4; secondary extends with COVID-control dummies.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
manufacturing_employment_thousands
outcome
bls:CES3000000001tier 1
log
tariffed_goods_import_value_log
outcome
us_census:trade_in_goodstier 1
log
import_unit_value_index
outcome
bls:import_price_indextier 1
level
trump_tariff_2018_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for tariffed-HS-code goods from 2018Q1 (Section 232 steel/aluminium) and 2018Q3 (Section 301 China); cumultier 5
indicator
real_effective_exchange_rate_usd
control
fred:DTWEXBGStier 1
log
log_real_gdp
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
log
federal_funds_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trump_tariff_manufacturing_reshoring_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Trump tariff policy 2018-2019 did not reshore US manufacturing output to a meaningful degree, and tariff incidence fell on US importers and consumers, consistent with post-Keynesian emphasis on demand-side rather than price-competition factors in trade flows.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, n=8624)
  • bls:CES3000000001 → manufacturing_employment_thousands (outcome, n=3)
  • us_census:trade_in_goods → tariffed_goods_import_value_log (outcome, n=1)
  • fred:DTWEXBGS → real_effective_exchange_rate_usd (controls, n=21)
  • fred:GDPC1 → log_real_gdp (controls, n=80)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → federal_funds_rate (controls, n=73)

Missing data

  • bls:import_price_index (outcome)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for tariffed-HS-code goods from 2018Q1 (Section 232 steel/aluminium) and 2018Q3 (Section 301 China); cumulative bundle through 2019. (treatment)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:35+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from post-Keynesian framing of Trump 2018-19 tariffs as failing to reshore manufacturing with incidence on US importers/consumers. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.