IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability

UK post-1979 institutional reform (Bank of England independence 1997, competition-authority strengthening, privatisation regulatory frameworks) contributed to 1992-2007 macro stability more than the policy content alone.

PARTIALengine/runs/uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-1.11e-15, p=0.926 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether boe independence event is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation from 1979 to 2007.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=-1.11e-15, p=0.926 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1979 to 2007, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Boe independence event
  • Gbr institutional reform indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
  • Cpi inflation volatility
  • Gilt yield 10y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability
1007550250197919932007GBRUSADEUFRAITACANJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 7 sampled countries over 1979–2007.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:35Z

UK post-1979 institutional reform (Bank of England independence 1997, competition-authority strengthening, privatisation regulatory frameworks) contributed to 1992-2007 macro stability more than the policy content alone.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Event-study around 1997-05-06 BoE independence on GBR vs G7 panel 1979-2007; 5y inflation-volatility decline >25% relative to G7 with p<0.10 supports the institutional-channel claim.

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
7 countries · 1979 – 2007
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Event-study around the May-1997 BoE operational-independence announcement (and secondary institutional events: 1998 Competition Act, 1979-1990 privatisation waves). Outcomes are CPI inflation, 10y gilt yields, and inflation expectations relative to G7 peers. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
ons:CDKOtier 1
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
pct_change_yoy
cpi_inflation_volatility
outcome
ons:CDKOtier 1
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
rolling_5yr_stddev
gilt_yield_10y
outcome
boe:IUDBEDRtier 1
fred:IRLTLT01GBM156Ntier 1
level
real_gdp_volatility
outcome
ons:ABMItier 1
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
rolling_5yr_stddev
boe_independence_event
treatment
constructed:event date = 1997-05-06 (Brown grants BoE operational independence)tier 5
event_date
gbr_institutional_reform_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for GBR from 1997-05; secondary 1998 Competition Act, 1980s privatisation wavestier 5
binary
oil_price
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff
g7_inflation_average
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
g7_simple_mean
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — uk_1997_institutional_reform_macro_stability

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-1.11e-15, p=0.926 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: UK post-1979 institutional reform (Bank of England independence 1997, competition-authority strengthening, privatisation regulatory frameworks) contributed to 1992-2007 macro stability more than the policy content alone.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event-study around 1997-05-06 BoE independence on GBR vs G7 panel 1979-2007; 5y inflation-volatility decline >25% relative to G7 with p<0.10 supports the institutional-channel claim.
  • Event year: 1997

Estimate

  • coefficient: -1.1102230246251565e-15
  • std_error: 1.1978078141552739e-14
  • p_value: 0.9261515023579627
  • n_obs: 119
  • n_countries: 7
  • r_squared_within: 1.0
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • ons:CDKO; world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • ons:CDKO; world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_volatility (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • boe:IUDBEDR; fred:IRLTLT01GBM156N → gilt_yield_10y (outcome, publisher=boe, n=52)
  • ons:ABMI; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_volatility (outcome, publisher=ons, n=78)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for GBR from 1997-05; secondary 1998 Competition Act, 1980s privatisation waves → gbr_institutional_reform_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=203)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=252)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → g7_inflation_average (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: event date = 1997-05-06 (Brown grants BoE operational independence) (treatment, name=boe_independence_event)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:35+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from institutionalist framing of UK post-1979 reforms (BoE independence 1997, competition authority, privatisation frameworks) as contributing to 1992-2007 macro stability beyond policy content. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.