IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation

UK electricity-sector privatisation post-1989 increased per-MWh retail prices and did not accelerate decarbonisation relative to the public counterfactual until state-directed renewables mandates post-2008.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ons:electricity_prices', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether post privatisation indicator is actually linked to better or worse real retail electricity price gbp per kwh from 1980 to 2017.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ons:electricity_prices', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2017, using a event study design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post privatisation indicator
  • Post climate change act indicator
What we checked
  • Real retail electricity price gbp per kwh
  • Grid co2 intensity g per kwh
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation
1007550250198019992017GBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_retail_electricity_price_gbp_per_kwh across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2017.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:02:35Z

UK electricity-sector privatisation post-1989 increased per-MWh retail prices and did not accelerate decarbonisation relative to the public counterfactual until state-directed renewables mandates post-2008.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      UK 1989-2017 event-study of real retail electricity price (DECC/BEIS) and grid CO2 intensity (DUKES) on privatisation 1989 and Climate Change Act 2008 events; HAC SEs with sub-period decomposition. Refute if post-1989 retail price not >10% above pre-privatisation trend OR if grid-CO2 decline rate 1990-2008 not slower than 2008-2017 rate at p<0.10.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
year
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2017
Evidence type
associational

Single-country interrupted time-series 1980-2017 with two treatment breakpoints (1989 privatisation, 2008 Climate Change Act). HAC SEs. Sub-period decomposition reports retail-price gap pre/post-1989 and grid-CO2 decline rate 1990-2008 vs 2008-2017. Counterfactual is weakly identified — gas-import dependence partials the price channel but cannot fully separate ownership-form from policy-design effects.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_retail_electricity_price_gbp_per_kwh
outcome
ons:electricity_pricestier 1
log
grid_co2_intensity_g_per_kwh
outcome
owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-countrytier 2
log
post_privatisation_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 1990 (post-1989 Electricity Act vesting).tier 5
indicator
post_climate_change_act_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 2008 (Climate Change Act enactment).tier 5
indicator
gas_share_of_generation
control
owid:share-elec-by-sourcetier 2
level
brent_oil_usd
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — uk_electricity_privatisation_price_decarbonisation

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ons:electricity_prices', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: UK electricity-sector privatisation post-1989 increased per-MWh retail prices and did not accelerate decarbonisation relative to the public counterfactual until state-directed renewables mandates post-2008.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: UK 1989-2017 event-study of real retail electricity price (DECC/BEIS) and grid CO2 intensity (DUKES) on privatisation 1989 and Climate Change Act 2008 events; HAC SEs with sub-period decomposition. Refute if post-1989 retail price not >10% above pre-privatisation trend OR if grid-CO2 decline rate 1990-2008 not slower than 2008-2017 rate at p<0.10.
  • Event year: (not extracted)

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ons:electricity_prices', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for years >= 1990 (post-1989 Electricity Act vesting). → post_privatisation_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=38)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for years >= 2008 (Climate Change Act enactment). → post_climate_change_act_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=38)
  • owid:share-elec-by-source → gas_share_of_generation (controls, publisher=owid, n=6460)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → brent_oil_usd (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)

Variables missing data

  • ons:electricity_prices (outcome, name=real_retail_electricity_price_gbp_per_kwh)
  • owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country (outcome, name=grid_co2_intensity_g_per_kwh)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:35+00:00

Notes

Maps the eco-socialist school's UK-electricity-privatisation-failure claim to a 1989-2017 single- country event-study with sub-period decomposition around the 2008 Climate Change Act. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.