IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition

Median UK real wage growth since 2008 has been materially below the pre-2008 trend (approximately flat real median wages vs a 2% annualised pre-crisis path), producing a ~15–20 percentage-point shortfall by 2023.

The gap is decomposable into empirically separable channels: (a) housing- cost inflation mis-attributed as real-wage compression when CPI excludes owner-occupier housing costs; (b) productivity collapse post-GFC that deepened after Brexit; (c) sectoral shift toward lower-wage services as finance stabilised; (d) labour-supply expansion through migration and female participation flattening individual wage growth while raising household income; (e) measurement artefacts (CPI vs RPI vs CPIH choice). The claim is that these channels jointly explain most of the gap and that no residual "pure wage capture" effect is needed once they are attributed — i.e. the stagnation is an institutional-failure story, not a market-failure story per the refinements' D.1.6 framing.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (12)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (12)

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Real residential property prices
  • Cpi all items vs cpih
What we checked
  • Median real wage index
  • Real income per person
  • Income per hour worked
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition
1007550250199520092023GBRUSADEUFRANLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show median_real_wage_index across 5 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:17Z

Median UK real wage growth since 2008 has been materially below the pre-2008 trend (approximately flat real median wages vs a 2% annualised pre-crisis path), producing a ~15–20 percentage-point shortfall by 2023. The gap is decomposable into empirically separable channels: (a) housing- cost inflation mis-attributed as real-wage compression when CPI excludes owner-occupier housing costs; (b) productivity collapse post-GFC that deepened after Brexit; (c) sectoral shift toward lower-wage services as finance stabilised; (d) labour-supply expansion through migration and female participation flattening individual wage growth while raising household income; (e) measurement artefacts (CPI vs RPI vs CPIH choice). The claim is that these channels jointly explain most of the gap and that no residual "pure wage capture" effect is needed once they are attributed — i.e. the stagnation is an institutional-failure story, not a market-failure story per the refinements' D.1.6 framing.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if the listed channels (housing, productivity, sectoral composition, labour supply, measurement) jointly explain less than 60% of the UK-to-comparator-trend wage-gap. A large unexplained residual would indicate a genuine rent-extraction / capture story inconsistent with the framework's institutional-failure diagnostic.

formal test & threshold
test:      residual_share_of_uk_trend_gap
threshold: residual < 40% of uk_to_counterfactual_trend_gap

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Decomposition: regress median-real-wage growth gap on each channel sequentially and jointly; report residual share. Robust to method per the refinements' insistence on honest residual reporting.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
median_real_wage_index
outcome
owid:self-reported-trust-attitudestier 2
real_index_base_2007
gdp_per_capita_real
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
real_yoy_pct_change
gdp_per_hour_worked
outcome
oecd:OECD.SDD.NAD.PRODtier 2
real_yoy_pct_change
real_residential_property_prices
channel
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
real_yoy_pct_change
cpi_all_items_vs_cpih
channel
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
—
labour_market_flexibility_index
channel
oecd:OECD.ELS.EMPtier 2
—
migration_share_of_population
channel
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL.ZStier 2
ratio
sectoral_composition_finance_share
channel
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
—
population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
—
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
—
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — uk_real_wage_stagnation_2008_present_decomposition

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (12)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Median UK real wage growth since 2008 has been materially below the pre-2008 trend (approximately flat real median wages vs a 2% annualised pre-crisis path), producing a ~15–20 percentage-point shortfall by 2023. The gap is decomposable into empirically separable channels: (a) housing- cost inflation mis-attributed as real-wage compression when CPI excludes owner-occupier housing costs; (b) productivity collapse post-GFC that deepened after Brexit; (c) sectoral shift toward lower-wage services as finance stabilised; (d) labour-supply expansion through migration and female participation flattening individual wage growth while raising household income; (e) measurement artefacts (CPI vs RPI vs CPIH choice). The claim is that these channels jointly explain most of the gap and that no residual "pure wage capture" effect is needed once they are attributed — i.e. the stagnation is an institutional-failure story, not a market-failure story per the refinements' D.1.6 framing.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if the listed channels (housing, productivity, sectoral composition, labour supply, measurement) jointly explain less than 60% of the UK-to-comparator-trend wage-gap. A large unexplained residual would indicate a genuine rent-extraction / capture story inconsistent with the framework's institutional-failure diagnostic.
  • Falsification test: residual_share_of_uk_trend_gap

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (12)

Variables resolved

  • owid:self-reported-trust-attitudes → median_real_wage_index (outcome, publisher=owid, n=421)
  • wb:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • bis:WS_SPP → real_residential_property_prices (decomposition_channels, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0 → cpi_all_items_vs_cpih (decomposition_channels, publisher=oecd, n=2908)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.EMP,DSD_EPL_OV@DF_EPL_OV,1.0 → labour_market_flexibility_index (decomposition_channels, publisher=oecd, n=1123)
  • wb:SM.POP.TOTL.ZS → migration_share_of_population (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2080)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → sectoral_composition_finance_share (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wb:SP.POP.TOTL → population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • wb:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • wb:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.SDD.NAD.PROD,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB_GR,1.0 (outcome, name=gdp_per_hour_worked) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:17+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate, not pre_registered. On promotion, resolve the ONS median- wage source (requires ONS fetcher or verified OWID mirror) and confirm the OECD PDB productivity dataflow URN.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.