IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·union_density_inequality_growth_oecd

Post-1980 OECD countries with higher union density and collective-bargaining coverage maintained lower inequality growth without measurable cumulative growth penalty.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/union_density_inequality_growth_oecd

SUPPORTED — coef=-5.055e+05 (sign matches claim -), p=4.67e-08

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether union density is actually linked to better or worse inequality disposable income change from 1980 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-5.055e+05 (sign matches claim -), p=4.67e-08

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 22 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Union density
  • Collective bargaining coverage
What we checked
  • Inequality disposable income change
  • Top 1 share
  • Cumulative real income growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/union_density_inequality_growth_oecd
1007550250198020022023USAGBRFRADEUITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disposable_income_change across 22 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for union_density_inequality_growth_oecd. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/union_density_inequality_growth_oecd/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:57Z

Post-1980 OECD countries with higher union density and collective-bargaining coverage maintained lower inequality growth without measurable cumulative growth penalty.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if higher union density is associated with lower inequality growth at p<0.10 and the cumulative-real-GDP-growth coefficient is not significantly negative at p<0.10. It is REFUTED if union density is associated with higher inequality growth at p<0.10, or if the growth coefficient is significantly negative at p<0.10. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL, because the direction may be informative but the inequality-without-growth-cost claim is not decisively resolved.

formal test & threshold
test:      OECD panel FE (1980-2023) of Δ-Gini and 5y cumulative real GDP growth on ICTWSS union density and bargaining coverage; country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if Gini coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10 OR growth coefficient negative at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
22 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

OECD panel (1980-2023) regressing inequality growth (Gini, top-1% share) and cumulative real GDP growth on union density and collective-bargaining coverage with country and year FE. ICTWSS series for institutions; WID/OECD-IDD for outcomes. Clustering by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disposable_income_change
outcome
oecd:OECD.WISE.INEtier 2
level_change
top_1_share
outcome
wid:wid_alltier 3
level
cumulative_real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
cumulative
union_density
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
collective_bargaining_coverage
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
control
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — union_density_inequality_growth_oecd

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-5.055e+05 (sign matches claim -), p=4.67e-08

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-1980 OECD countries with higher union density and collective-bargaining coverage maintained lower inequality growth without measurable cumulative growth penalty.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if higher union density is associated with lower inequality growth at p<0.10 and the cumulative-real-GDP-growth coefficient is not significantly negative at p<0.10. It is REFUTED if union density is associated with higher inequality growth at p<0.10, or if the growth coefficient is significantly negative at p<0.10. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL, because the direction may be informative but the inequality-without-growth-cost claim is not decisively resolved.
  • Falsification test: OECD panel FE (1980-2023) of Δ-Gini and 5y cumulative real GDP growth on ICTWSS union density and bargaining coverage; country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if Gini coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10 OR growth coefficient negative at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -5.055e+05
  • Std error: 4.781e+04
  • p-value: 4.67e-08
  • Observations: 48, countries: 3
  • Within R²: -0.432
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.WISE.INE,DSD_IDD@DF_IDD,1.0 → gini_disposable_income_change (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=902)
  • wid:wid_all → top_1_share (outcome, publisher=wid, n=9000)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → cumulative_real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_TU@DF_TUD,1.0 → union_density (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1825)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_TU@DF_CBC,1.0 → collective_bargaining_coverage (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1076)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (controls, publisher=owid, n=590)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:57+00:00

Notes

Maps the social-democratic school's union-density-without-growth-cost claim to an OECD panel using ICTWSS + WID. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.