IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·us_1945_1973_labour_compact_productivity_wage_link

US 1945-1973 coordinated labour-management-state compact produced broad-based real-wage growth tracking productivity, demonstrating that strong labour institutions + progressive taxation are growth-compatible.

PARTIALengine/runs/us_1945_1973_labour_compact_productivity_wage_link

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.361; threshold not extracted

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.361; threshold not extracted

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1945 to 1973, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Labour productivity
  • Real compensation per hour
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_1945_1973_labour_compact_productivity_wage_link
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T11:53:52Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

US 1945-1973 coordinated labour-management-state compact produced broad-based real-wage growth tracking productivity, demonstrating that strong labour institutions + progressive taxation are growth-compatible.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if BOTH (a) the cumulative log wedge between US labour productivity (FRED OPHNFB, output per hour, nonfarm business) and real compensation per hour (FRED COMPRNFB, nonfarm business), measured from window-start (1947Q1) to window-end (1973Q4), is less than 10 percentage points in absolute value, AND (b) the within-window Pearson correlation between the two log-index series is greater than 0.85. REFUTED if the absolute cumulative wedge exceeds 25 percentage points OR the correlation falls below 0.5. PARTIAL covers the in-between range (wedge 10-25pp or correlation 0.5-0.85) where productivity-compensation tracking is real but weaker than the strong-form social-democratic claim. METHOD_VALID: both FRED series available with at least 100 quarterly observations in the 1947Q1-1973Q4 effective window. Failure of the method-validity gate emits 'inconclusive (data gap)' rather than a refutation.

formal test & threshold
test:      cumulative_log_wedge_and_correlation_1947_1973
threshold: PRIMARY: abs(log(productivity_index_1973Q4) - log(compensation_index_1973Q4)) < 0.10 AND pearson_corr(log_productivity, log_compensation) > 0.85. REFUTED if abs(wedge) > 0.25 OR pearson_corr < 0.5.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1945 – 1973
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country US time-series 1947Q1-1973Q4 of labour productivity vs real compensation per hour. Reports the cumulative log wedge from window-start to window-end and the within-window Pearson correlation of the two log-index series. No regression, no clustering — descriptive descriptive index comparison.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
labour_productivity
outcome
fred:OPHNFBtier 1
—
real_compensation_per_hour
outcome
fred:COMPRNFBtier 1
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — us_1945_1973_labour_compact_productivity_wage_link

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.361; threshold not extracted

Pre-registration

  • Claim: US 1945-1973 coordinated labour-management-state compact produced broad-based real-wage growth tracking productivity, demonstrating that strong labour institutions + progressive taxation are growth-compatible.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if BOTH (a) the cumulative log wedge between US labour productivity (FRED OPHNFB, output per hour, nonfarm business) and real compensation per hour (FRED COMPRNFB, nonfarm business), measured from window-start (1947Q1) to window-end (1973Q4), is less than 10 percentage points in absolute value, AND (b) the within-window Pearson correlation between the two log-index series is greater than 0.85. REFUTED if the absolute cumulative wedge exceeds 25 percentage points OR the correlation falls below 0.5. PARTIAL covers the in-between range (wedge 10-25pp or correlation 0.5-0.85) where productivity-compensation tracking is real but weaker than the strong-form social-democratic claim. METHOD_VALID: both FRED series available with at least 100 quarterly observations in the 1947Q1-1973Q4 effective window. Failure of the method-validity gate emits 'inconclusive (data gap)' rather than a refutation.
  • Falsification test: cumulative_log_wedge_and_correlation_1947_1973

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: USA
  • cut_year: 1959
  • pre_mean: 26.65652083333333
  • post_mean: 38.25718333333332
  • delta: 11.600662499999991
  • log_delta: 0.36129753734551073
  • n_pre: 12
  • n_post: 15

Variables resolved

  • fred:OPHNFB → labour_productivity (outcome, publisher=fred, n=79)
  • fred:COMPRNFB → real_compensation_per_hour (outcome, publisher=fred, n=79)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T11:53:52+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a social-democratic school prediction about postwar US productivity-compensation tracking. Spec window is 1945-1973 but the canonical FRED series (OPHNFB output per hour, COMPRNFB real compensation per hour, both nonfarm business) start in 1947Q1 — effective evaluation window is 1947-1973. Falsification rule operates on the cumulative log wedge between productivity and compensation indexed to the start of the window, plus the within-window correlation of the two index series.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.