Pre-registration
US GDP growth 1980-2020 did not absolutely decouple from territorial CO2 emissions once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed; 'decoupling' claim dissolves under consumption-based accounting.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if cumulative US real GDP growth 1980-2020 (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD ratio 2020/1980 - 1) exceeds +50% AND the absolute change in US consumption-based CO2 (level 2020 vs level 1980) is a decline of less than 5% (i.e. consumption-based emissions are roughly flat or higher while GDP more than 1.5x — the 'decoupling claim dissolves' regime). REFUTED if consumption-based CO2 declined by at least 25% over 1980-2020 (sustained absolute decoupling visible even on the offshoring-corrected series). PARTIAL otherwise. INFORMATIVE (not gating): cumulative change in territorial CO2 per capita and the implied territorial-vs-consumption gap, reported in diagnostics. METHOD_VALID: requires both world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD and a US 1980-2020 consumption-based CO2 series (owid:consumption_co2 or equivalent GCP/Eora MRIO vintage) on disk. If the consumption-based series is missing, the run emits 'inconclusive (data gap on owid:consumption_co2)' and reports the territorial-only descriptive numbers as informative.
formal test & threshold
test: us_gdp_vs_consumption_based_co2_1980_2020 threshold: PRIMARY: gdp_ratio_2020_1980 > 1.50 AND consumption_co2_change_pct > -0.05 -> SUPPORTED. consumption_co2_change_pct <= -0.25 -> REFUTED.
Method
- Template
descriptive- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1980 – 2020
- Evidence type
- descriptive
Single-country US 1980-2020 time-series comparison of GDP growth against territorial CO2 emissions and against consumption-based (offshoring-corrected) emissions. Tests whether the decoupling claim persists once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed to the consuming economy.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
real_gdp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2 | — |
territorial_co2 outcome | owid:co2_per_capitatier 2 | — |
consumption_based_co2 outcome | owid:consumption_co2tier 2 | — |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Notes
Stub seeded from an eco-socialist prediction about offshoring-corrected emissions. Promoted v1 on 2026-04-27. The consumption-based CO2 series (Global Carbon Project / Eora MRIO) is NOT yet on disk — fetcher needs to be built before a dispositive verdict is possible. Run currently emits inconclusive (data gap) with territorial-only descriptive numbers as informative.