IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record

Post-Bretton Woods US (1971-present) has never faced a solvency crisis in dollar-denominated debt, consistent with currency-issuer operational-solvency claim.

WEAKENEDengine/runs/us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record

WEAKENED — zero qualifying events in the coded record and gross federal debt/GDP crosses 100% in 2014; default/CDS/auction gates are not machine-fetched yet

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether gross federal debt pct income is actually linked to better or worse us treasury yield 10y from 1971 to 2023.

plain answer

zero qualifying events in the coded record and gross federal debt/GDP crosses 100% in 2014; default/CDS/auction gates are not machine-fetched yet

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1971 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gross federal debt pct income
  • Post bretton woods indicator
What we checked
  • Us treasury yield 10y
  • Us treasury yield 30y
  • Us sovereign cds 5y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record
1007550250197119972023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show us_treasury_yield_10y across 1 sampled countries over 1971–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Modern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:27:13Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-Bretton Woods US (1971-present) has never faced a solvency crisis in dollar-denominated debt, consistent with currency-issuer operational-solvency claim.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Descriptive count of dollar-denominated US-federal solvency events 1971-2023 (technical-default, missed-payment, IMF-distress); zero events with sovereign-CDS <100bp peak supports the issuer-solvency claim.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 1971 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Descriptive trajectory of US 1971-2023: gross federal debt / GDP, 10y/30y Treasury yields, sovereign CDS, and any technical-default or solvency-trigger events. Pattern-test: zero dollar-denominated solvency events across the period. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
us_treasury_yield_10y
outcome
fred:DGS10tier 1
level
us_treasury_yield_30y
outcome
fred:DGS30tier 1
level
us_sovereign_cds_5y
outcome
academic:bloomberg_cdstier 4
level
dollar_denominated_default_event_count
outcome
constructed:zero events documented for federal dollar-denominated obligations 1971-2023tier 5
count
gross_federal_debt_pct_gdp
treatment
fred:GFDEGDQ188Stier 1
level
post_bretton_woods_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from 1971-08-15 (Nixon shock; gold-window closure)tier 5
binary
cpi_inflation
control
fred:CPIAUCSLtier 1
pct_change_yoy
real_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
pct_change_yoy
dxy_dollar_index
control
fred:DTWEXBGStier 1
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — us_dollar_issuer_solvency_record

Verdict: WEAKENED — zero qualifying events in the coded record and gross federal debt/GDP crosses 100% in 2014; default/CDS/auction gates are not machine-fetched yet

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-Bretton Woods US (1971-present) has never faced a solvency crisis in dollar-denominated debt, consistent with currency-issuer operational-solvency claim.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Descriptive count of dollar-denominated US-federal solvency events 1971-2023 (technical-default, missed-payment, IMF-distress); zero events with sovereign-CDS <100bp peak supports the issuer-solvency claim.

Comparison

  • shape: us_issuer_solvency_zero_event_gate
  • country: USA
  • period: [1971, 2023]
  • qualifying_default_or_distress_event_count: 0
  • event_count_source: spec-coded zero-event claim; machine-readable default/CDS/auction vintage not yet loaded
  • machine_fetched_event_vintage_loaded: False
  • cds_gate_loaded: False
  • treasury_auction_gate_loaded: False
  • context: {'gross_debt_pct_gdp_max': {'year': 2020, 'value': 122.302125}, 'gross_debt_pct_gdp_cross_100': {'year': 2014, 'value': 101.09735500000001}, 'us_treasury_yield_10y': {'min': 0.889203187250996, 'max': 13.92136546184739, 'end_year': 2023, 'end_value': 3.959}, 'us_treasury_yield_30y': {'min': 1.5561354581673306, 'max': 13.44586345381526, 'end_year': 2023, 'end_value': 4.0948}, 'cpi_yoy_peak': {'year': 1980, 'value': 13.50172215843859}}

Variables resolved

  • fred:DGS10 → us_treasury_yield_10y (outcome, publisher=fred, n=65)
  • fred:DGS30 → us_treasury_yield_30y (outcome, publisher=fred, n=50)
  • fred:GFDEGDQ188S → gross_federal_debt_pct_gdp (treatment, publisher=fred, n=60)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from 1971-08-15 (Nixon shock; gold-window closure) → post_bretton_woods_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=53)
  • fred:CPIAUCSL → cpi_inflation (controls, publisher=fred, n=80)
  • fred:GDPC1 → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=80)
  • fred:DTWEXBGS → dxy_dollar_index (controls, publisher=fred, n=21)

Variables missing data

  • academic:bloomberg_cds (outcome, name=us_sovereign_cds_5y)
  • constructed: zero events documented for federal dollar-denominated obligations 1971-2023 (outcome, name=dollar_denominated_default_event_count)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:27:13+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from MMT framing of post-1971 US as never having faced a dollar-denominated solvency crisis, consistent with currency-issuer operational solvency. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.