IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·us_household_debt_sustains_demand_1990_2008

Pre-2008 US household debt expansion sustained aggregate demand in the face of stagnant real median wages, a pattern inconsistent with representative-agent rational-expectations models.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/us_household_debt_sustains_demand_1990_2008

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (2) obs

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether household debt to income is actually linked to better or worse real personal consumption expenditure from 1990 to 2008.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre (0) or post (2) obs

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2008, using a local projections design, with fixed effects for state and quarter.

what was measured
What changed
  • Household debt to income
  • Mortgage debt to income
What we checked
  • Real personal consumption expenditure
  • Real consumption growth state panel
  • Real median household income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_household_debt_sustains_demand_1990_2008
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Post-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:38:50Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Pre-2008 US household debt expansion sustained aggregate demand in the face of stagnant real median wages, a pattern inconsistent with representative-agent rational-expectations models.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if all THREE national-level descriptive co-movement conditions hold for the US 1990 -> 2007 window: (1) WAGE STAGNATION — log growth of real median household income (FRED MEHOINUSA672N) <= 0.20 cumulative log points (~+22%); (2) DEBT EXPANSION — log growth of household mortgage liabilities (FRED MDOAH) exceeds log growth of real median income by >= 0.50 log points (debt grows materially faster than wages); (3) DEMAND HELD UP — log growth of real personal consumption (FRED PCE deflated by FRED PCEPI) exceeds log growth of real median income by >= 0.20 log points (consumption decoupled upward from median wages over the window). REFUTED if BOTH (1) wage-stagnation AND (2) debt-wage-wedge fail simultaneously — either alone suffices to invalidate the post-Keynesian descriptive premise. PARTIAL otherwise. INFORMATIVE: household debt service ratio level shift (FRED HDTGPDUSQ163N), real house-price growth 1990->2006 (FRED USSTHPI), labour-share change (FRED PRS85006173), federal-funds-rate level (FRED DFF). Reported but non-gating. METHOD_VALID: all three primary FRED series available with at least one observation in each anchor year (1990 and 2007).

formal test & threshold
test:      us_national_wage_debt_consumption_co_movement_1990_2007
threshold: PRIMARY (all three required for SUPPORTED):
  log(MEHOINUSA672N_2007 / MEHOINUSA672N_1990) <= 0.20  AND
  log(MDOAH_2007 / MDOAH_1990) - log(MEHOINUSA672N_2007 / MEHOINUSA672N_1990) >= 0.50  AND
  log((PCE/PCEPI)_2007 / (PCE/PCEPI)_1990) - log(MEHOINUSA672N_2007 / MEHOINUSA672N_1990) >= 0.20.
REFUTED if conditions (1) AND (2) both fail.

Method

Template
local_projections
Fixed effects
state, quarter
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2008
Evidence type
associational

Local projections of consumption growth on household-debt accumulation impulses across US states 1990-2008 (Mian-Sufi-style leverage shock identification). State and quarter FE; clustering by state.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_personal_consumption_expenditure
outcome
fred:PCEC96tier 1
pct_yoy
real_consumption_growth_state_panel
outcome
fred:PCEC1tier 1
pct_yoy
real_median_household_income
outcome
fred:MEHOINUSA672Ntier 1
us_census:saipetier 1
real_usd_yoy
household_debt_to_income
treatment
fred:HDTGPDUSQ163Ntier 1
fred:CMDEBTtier 1
ratio_level
mortgage_debt_to_gdp
treatment
fred:MDOAHtier 1
pct_gdp
home_equity_extraction
treatment
fred:HMLBSHNOtier 1
pct_disposable_income
real_house_price_index
control
fred:USSTHPItier 1
shiller:home_price_indextier 3
real_index_2000_100
federal_funds_rate
control
fred:DFFtier 1
level_pct
state_unemployment_rate
control
fred:state_unemployment_rate (LAUS)tier 1
level_pct
labour_share_us
control
fred:PRS85006173tier 1
pwt:labshtier 3
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — us_household_debt_sustains_demand_1990_2008

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (2) obs

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Pre-2008 US household debt expansion sustained aggregate demand in the face of stagnant real median wages, a pattern inconsistent with representative-agent rational-expectations models.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if all THREE national-level descriptive co-movement conditions hold for the US 1990 -> 2007 window: (1) WAGE STAGNATION — log growth of real median household income (FRED MEHOINUSA672N) <= 0.20 cumulative log points (~+22%); (2) DEBT EXPANSION — log growth of household mortgage liabilities (FRED MDOAH) exceeds log growth of real median income by >= 0.50 log points (debt grows materially faster than wages); (3) DEMAND HELD UP — log growth of real personal consumption (FRED PCE deflated by FRED PCEPI) exceeds log growth of real median income by >= 0.20 log points (consumption decoupled upward from median wages over the window). REFUTED if BOTH (1) wage-stagnation AND (2) debt-wage-wedge fail simultaneously — either alone suffices to invalidate the post-Keynesian descriptive premise. PARTIAL otherwise. INFORMATIVE: household debt service ratio level shift (FRED HDTGPDUSQ163N), real house-price growth 1990->2006 (FRED USSTHPI), labour-share change (FRED PRS85006173), federal-funds-rate level (FRED DFF). Reported but non-gating. METHOD_VALID: all three primary FRED series available with at least one observation in each anchor year (1990 and 2007).
  • Falsification test: us_national_wage_debt_consumption_co_movement_1990_2007

Comparison

  • Error: insufficient pre (0) or post (2) obs

Variables resolved

  • fred:PCEC96 → real_personal_consumption_expenditure (outcome, publisher=fred, n=20)
  • fred:MEHOINUSA672N; us_census:saipe → real_median_household_income (outcome, publisher=fred, n=41)
  • fred:HDTGPDUSQ163N (household debt service ratio); fred:CMDEBT (consumer credit) → household_debt_to_income (treatment, publisher=fred, n=81)
  • fred:MDOAH (home mortgage liabilities of households) → mortgage_debt_to_gdp (treatment, publisher=fred, n=71)
  • fred:HMLBSHNO (households mortgage liability change) → home_equity_extraction (treatment, publisher=fred, n=81)
  • fred:USSTHPI (Case-Shiller); shiller:home_price_index → real_house_price_index (controls, publisher=fred+shiller, n=136)
  • fred:DFF → federal_funds_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=73)
  • fred:PRS85006173 (nonfarm business labour share); pwt:labsh → labour_share_us (controls, publisher=fred+pwt, n=7979)

Variables missing data

  • fred:PCEC1 (BEA state-level PCE, available 1997+) (outcome, name=real_consumption_growth_state_panel)
  • fred:state_unemployment_rate (LAUS) (controls, name=state_unemployment_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-06-29T17:38:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Maps the post-keynesian school's debt-substitutes-for-wages claim to a Mian-Sufi-style state- level local projections specification 1990-2008. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off. v2 subnational supplement: Added BLS LAU state unemployment panel for cross-state variation analysis. BEA state PCE and NY Fed CCP still needed for full Mian-Sufi design.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.