IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition

The observed gap between US median real wage growth and US real GDP per capita growth over 1973-2000 (commonly characterised as "wage stagnation during a productivity boom") is substantially explained by a decomposable set of channels rather than a single rent-extraction story: (a) growth in non-wage benefits — primarily employer-paid healthcare — substituting for cash wages; (b) compositional shifts in the labour force driven by expanded female labour force participation lowering the median worker's experience profile; (c) divergence between consumer-price and output- price deflators (Feldstein measurement critique); (d) the genuine but smaller residual of top-strata capture of marginal product growth (Bivens-Mishel reading).

The claim is that channels (a)-(c) jointly absorb the majority of the raw wage-productivity gap, with a material but minority residual for top-strata capture — i.e. the "stagnation" is real, but its mechanism is primarily compositional and measurement- driven, with a secondary but non-zero distributional component.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: []

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: []

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1973 to 2000, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Total compensation vs wages ratio
  • Female labour force participation
What we checked
  • Median real wage production nonsupervisory
  • Real income per person
  • Output per hour nonfarm business
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition
1007550250197319872000USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show median_real_wage_production_nonsupervisory across 1 sampled countries over 1973–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call⇄

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:59Z

The observed gap between US median real wage growth and US real GDP per capita growth over 1973-2000 (commonly characterised as "wage stagnation during a productivity boom") is substantially explained by a decomposable set of channels rather than a single rent-extraction story: (a) growth in non-wage benefits — primarily employer-paid healthcare — substituting for cash wages; (b) compositional shifts in the labour force driven by expanded female labour force participation lowering the median worker's experience profile; (c) divergence between consumer-price and output- price deflators (Feldstein measurement critique); (d) the genuine but smaller residual of top-strata capture of marginal product growth (Bivens-Mishel reading). The claim is that channels (a)-(c) jointly absorb the majority of the raw wage-productivity gap, with a material but minority residual for top-strata capture — i.e. the "stagnation" is real, but its mechanism is primarily compositional and measurement- driven, with a secondary but non-zero distributional component.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if the three compositional/measurement channels (benefits substitution, female LFP, CPI-GDP deflator wedge) jointly absorb less than 50 percent of the raw cumulative 1973-2000 wage-productivity gap, leaving a top-strata-capture residual of more than 50 percent. That pattern would weaken the "stagnation is primarily compositional" framing and strengthen the pure rent-extraction reading. Symmetrically, the hypothesis is also not supported if the channels absorb more than 95 percent of the gap with zero residual for top-strata capture — because WID data clearly shows top-1% share doubling over the window, a zero residual would indicate model mis-specification.

formal test & threshold
test:      channel_attribution_share_of_cumulative_gap
threshold: 0.50 <= compositional_and_measurement_share <= 0.85  AND 0.15 <= top_strata_residual <= 0.50

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
year
Sample
1 countries · 1973 – 2000
Evidence type
descriptive

Sequential decomposition: (1) compute raw wage-productivity gap as cumulative log ratio of median wage index to productivity index 1973-2000; (2) sequentially attribute gap to each channel by substituting channel-adjusted series (compensation ratio, LFP-adjusted median, deflator-aligned wage); (3) report residual as the top-strata capture component. Cross-check via Oaxaca-Blinder-style variance decomposition on annualised growth rates with Newey-West SEs. Time-series only; country FE not applicable (single country). Template slot 'panel_fe_decomposition' used for the decomposition mechanics; degenerates to a time-series decomposition given n=1.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
median_real_wage_production_nonsupervisory
outcome
bls:CES0500000008tier 1
real_index_base_1973
gdp_per_capita_real
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
real_yoy_pct_change
output_per_hour_nonfarm_business
outcome
bls:PRS85006092tier 1
real_index_base_1973
total_compensation_vs_wages_ratio
channel
bls:CES0500000002tier 1
ratio_compensation_to_wages
female_labour_force_participation
channel
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZStier 2
level
cpi_u_vs_gdp_deflator
channel
bls:CUUR0000SA0tier 1
ratio_to_gdp_deflator
top_1pct_income_share
channel
owid:top-1-share-of-total-incometier 2
level
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — us_median_wage_stagnation_1973_2000_decomposition

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: []

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The observed gap between US median real wage growth and US real GDP per capita growth over 1973-2000 (commonly characterised as "wage stagnation during a productivity boom") is substantially explained by a decomposable set of channels rather than a single rent-extraction story: (a) growth in non-wage benefits — primarily employer-paid healthcare — substituting for cash wages; (b) compositional shifts in the labour force driven by expanded female labour force participation lowering the median worker's experience profile; (c) divergence between consumer-price and output- price deflators (Feldstein measurement critique); (d) the genuine but smaller residual of top-strata capture of marginal product growth (Bivens-Mishel reading). The claim is that channels (a)-(c) jointly absorb the majority of the raw wage-productivity gap, with a material but minority residual for top-strata capture — i.e. the "stagnation" is real, but its mechanism is primarily compositional and measurement- driven, with a secondary but non-zero distributional component.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if the three compositional/measurement channels (benefits substitution, female LFP, CPI-GDP deflator wedge) jointly absorb less than 50 percent of the raw cumulative 1973-2000 wage-productivity gap, leaving a top-strata-capture residual of more than 50 percent. That pattern would weaken the "stagnation is primarily compositional" framing and strengthen the pure rent-extraction reading. Symmetrically, the hypothesis is also not supported if the channels absorb more than 95 percent of the gap with zero residual for top-strata capture — because WID data clearly shows top-1% share doubling over the window, a zero residual would indicate model mis-specification.
  • Falsification test: channel_attribution_share_of_cumulative_gap

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: []

Variables resolved

  • bls:CES0500000008 → median_real_wage_production_nonsupervisory (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • bls:PRS85006092 → output_per_hour_nonfarm_business (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • bls:CES0500000002 → total_compensation_vs_wages_ratio (decomposition_channels, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS → female_labour_force_participation (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8302)
  • bls:CUUR0000SA0 → cpi_u_vs_gdp_deflator (decomposition_channels, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • owid:top-1-share-of-total-income → top_1pct_income_share (decomposition_channels, publisher=owid, n=3294)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:59+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Single-country time-series decomposition; BLS CES and PRS series are the spine. BEA would provide cleaner compensation-vs-wages split but no BEA fetcher is live; BLS CES employer-cost series is the operational substitute. WID top-1% share is routed via OWID mirror pending native WID fetcher — flagged for v2 re-wire.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.