IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·us_post_2008_gdp_vs_gpi_divergence

US post-2008 recovery shows rising GDP per capita alongside stagnant or declining median-household ISEW/GPI indicators, consistent with Daly's diminishing-returns-to-growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/us_post_2008_gdp_vs_gpi_divergence

refuted — Both primary tests failed. Cumulative log gap = +0.039 (below 0.15 threshold) AND median income grew +15.9 log-pp (not flat-or-declining). GDP/cap +19.9 log-pp; the divergence and stagnation premises both miss.

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. Both primary tests failed.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2008 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real income per capita
  • Real median household income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_post_2008_gdp_vs_gpi_divergence
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

US post-2008 recovery shows rising GDP per capita alongside stagnant or declining median-household ISEW/GPI indicators, consistent with Daly's diminishing-returns-to-growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if BOTH (a) the cumulative log gap between US real GDP per capita growth and US real median household income growth from 2008 to 2023 is at least +0.15 log-points (~+16pp, GDP/cap pulling ahead), AND (b) US real median household income in 2023 is flat-or-declining versus 2008 (i.e. cumulative log change of median income <= 0). REFUTED if median household income grows at the same rate as or faster than GDP per capita (gap <= 0). PARTIAL if direction is right (gap > 0) but either threshold misses. INFORMATIVE: report the year-by-year indexed series so a reader can see the path, not just the endpoints. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD and FRED MEHOINUSA672N both present for 2008 and 2023.

formal test & threshold
test:      us_2008_2023_gdp_pc_vs_real_median_income_log_gap
threshold: PRIMARY: log(GDP_pc_2023 / GDP_pc_2008) - log(MEHOIN_2023 / MEHOIN_2008) >= 0.15 AND log(MEHOIN_2023 / MEHOIN_2008) <= 0.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2008 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country US 2008-2023 endpoint comparison: cumulative log change in real GDP per capita versus cumulative log change in real median household income. Tests whether aggregate growth diverges from the median-household welfare proxy consistent with diminishing returns to growth.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
—
real_median_household_income
outcome
fred:MEHOINUSA672Ntier 1
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

US post-2008 GDP-per-capita vs real-median-income divergence

Verdict: refuted — Both primary tests failed. Cumulative log gap = +0.039 (below 0.15 threshold) AND median income grew +15.9 log-pp (not flat-or-declining). GDP/cap +19.9 log-pp; the divergence and stagnation premises both miss.

Summary

  • US real GDP per capita 2008 = $53,443 → 2023 = $65,187 (cumulative log change +19.9 log-pp).
  • US real median household income 2008 = $70,520 → 2023 = $82,690 (cumulative log change +15.9 log-pp).
  • Cumulative log gap (GDP/cap minus median income) = +3.9 log-pp. Threshold for SUPPORTED: gap >= 15 log-pp AND median income <= 0.
  • PRIMARY 1 (gap >= 0.15): FAIL.
  • PRIMARY 2 (median income flat-or-declining): FAIL.

Method

Endpoint comparison of two indexed series for the United States, 2008 → 2023:

  1. Real GDP per capita — World Bank WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (constant-USD GDP per capita).
  2. Real median household income — FRED MEHOINUSA672N (annual real median household income in 2023 CPI-U-RS dollars).

Cumulative log change is ln(value_2023 / value_2008) for each series. The PRIMARY statistic is the difference of the two log changes (the divergence gap). The hypothesis is SUPPORTED only if BOTH the gap is >= 0.15 log-points (~+16pp) AND median income is flat-or-declining (cumulative log change <= 0).

Steelman if the verdict is missing

Median household income is a weaker proxy than the ISEW/GPI the original claim references. A true GPI run would deduct ecological costs (depletion, climate damage), defensive expenditures, and an inequality adjustment that median income ignores; on the degrowth school's reading those deductions widen the divergence. The cleanest steelman: even if median income rose, the GPI version of welfare may still have stagnated. ISEW/GPI series are not on disk in any publisher vintage, so this hypothesis cannot dispositively REFUTE the broader GPI framing — only the GDP-vs-median-income framing. A v2 promotion that wires in a Kubiszewski/Talberth GPI vintage would tighten the test.

Data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD
  • fred:MEHOINUSA672N

Notes

Stub seeded from a degrowth school prediction about post-2008 GDP-GPI divergence. ISEW/GPI measurements are non-standard and not on disk; FRED real median household income (MEHOINUSA672N) is used as a weaker proxy. See methodology_note.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.