IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share

Vietnam's post-Doi Moi economic growth (1986-2020) is more strongly associated with private-sector enterprise entry, trade openness, and market-oriented reforms than with state-owned-enterprise (SOE) expansion or continued state direction.

The acceleration in GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity after 1990 correlates with rising private-sector employment and output shares, while periods of SOE expansion or re-centralisation (late 2000s) are associated with slower TFP growth and rising resource misallocation, after controlling for initial income, human capital, foreign direct investment, and agricultural transition.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.001558 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0749

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.001558 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0749

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1986 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Private sector share
  • State-owned firms share
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share
1007550250198620032020VNMCHNLAOKHMPHLIDNBGD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 8 sampled countries over 1986–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:07Z

Vietnam's post-Doi Moi economic growth (1986-2020) is more strongly associated with private-sector enterprise entry, trade openness, and market-oriented reforms than with state-owned-enterprise (SOE) expansion or continued state direction. The acceleration in GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity after 1990 correlates with rising private-sector employment and output shares, while periods of SOE expansion or re-centralisation (late 2000s) are associated with slower TFP growth and rising resource misallocation, after controlling for initial income, human capital, foreign direct investment, and agricultural transition.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the SOE-share coefficient is positive and larger than the private-sector-share coefficient in explaining TFP or GDP per capita growth in Vietnam and comparators, or if private-sector share does not carry a positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_vietnam_private_vs_soe_growth_1986_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1986 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects with interaction between private-sector share and trade openness.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
private_sector_share
treatment
constructed:vietnam_private_employment_or_output_sharetier 5
level
soe_share
treatment
constructed:vietnam_soe_employment_or_output_sharetier 5
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
fdi_inflows_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
agricultural_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — vietnam_doi_moi_private_sector_growth_share

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.001558 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0749

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Vietnam's post-Doi Moi economic growth (1986-2020) is more strongly associated with private-sector enterprise entry, trade openness, and market-oriented reforms than with state-owned-enterprise (SOE) expansion or continued state direction. The acceleration in GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity after 1990 correlates with rising private-sector employment and output shares, while periods of SOE expansion or re-centralisation (late 2000s) are associated with slower TFP growth and rising resource misallocation, after controlling for initial income, human capital, foreign direct investment, and agricultural transition.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the SOE-share coefficient is positive and larger than the private-sector-share coefficient in explaining TFP or GDP per capita growth in Vietnam and comparators, or if private-sector share does not carry a positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_vietnam_private_vs_soe_growth_1986_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.001558
  • Std error: 0.000867
  • p-value: 0.0749
  • Observations: 164, countries: 5
  • Within R²: 0.246
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → agricultural_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10968)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:vietnam_private_employment_or_output_share (treatment, name=private_sector_share) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:vietnam_soe_employment_or_output_share (treatment, name=soe_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:07+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Vietnam's data on private-sector vs SOE shares are incomplete and subject to definitional changes. The test uses multiple proxies (employment, output, enterprise counts) and checks robustness across definitions.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.