IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect

Mexico's 2023 Pensión Universal expansion (DOF January 2023, raising the universal-noncontributory pension to all adults 65+ at twice the previous level under AMLO's constitutional amendment) raised social-spending share of GDP by at least 1 percentage point of GDP within two fiscal years, with no offsetting domestic-revenue measure, generating a measurable structural-fiscal-balance deterioration visible in IMF Article IV monitoring and BdM stability reports.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (3) or post (0) obs

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 2018 to 2026.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre (3) or post (0) obs

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2018 to 2026, using a descriptive design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Social spending share income
  • Structural fiscal balance share income
  • Elderly poverty rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect
1007550250201820222026MEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show social_spending_share_gdp across 1 sampled countries over 2018–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:13Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Mexico's 2023 Pensión Universal expansion (DOF January 2023, raising the universal-noncontributory pension to all adults 65+ at twice the previous level under AMLO's constitutional amendment) raised social-spending share of GDP by at least 1 percentage point of GDP within two fiscal years, with no offsetting domestic-revenue measure, generating a measurable structural-fiscal-balance deterioration visible in IMF Article IV monitoring and BdM stability reports.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if MEX social-spending-share-of-GDP rises by less than 1pp 2022-2025, OR if structural- fiscal-balance does not deteriorate by at least 0.7pp of GDP over the same window, OR if elderly- poverty rate falls by more than 5pp (i.e., a large redistributive success would warrant reconsidering the fiscal-cost framing as the dominant outcome).

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_fiscal_trajectory_vs_imf_2022_projection
threshold: delta_social_spending >= +1pp AND delta_structural_balance <= -0.7pp AND delta_elderly_poverty > -5pp

Method

Template
descriptive
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 2018 – 2026
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive time-series for MEX with pre-launch IMF Article IV projection as counterfactual. Compare 2023-2025 actual social-spending and fiscal-balance trajectory against 2022 IMF baseline.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
social_spending_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXG_NGDPtier 2
level
structural_fiscal_balance_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGSB_NPGDPtier 2
level
elderly_poverty_rate
outcome
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
level_pct
oil_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log
dependency_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_pension_mexico_universal_2023_fiscal_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (3) or post (0) obs

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Mexico's 2023 Pensión Universal expansion (DOF January 2023, raising the universal-noncontributory pension to all adults 65+ at twice the previous level under AMLO's constitutional amendment) raised social-spending share of GDP by at least 1 percentage point of GDP within two fiscal years, with no offsetting domestic-revenue measure, generating a measurable structural-fiscal-balance deterioration visible in IMF Article IV monitoring and BdM stability reports.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if MEX social-spending-share-of-GDP rises by less than 1pp 2022-2025, OR if structural- fiscal-balance does not deteriorate by at least 0.7pp of GDP over the same window, OR if elderly- poverty rate falls by more than 5pp (i.e., a large redistributive success would warrant reconsidering the fiscal-cost framing as the dominant outcome).
  • Falsification test: descriptive_fiscal_trajectory_vs_imf_2022_projection

Comparison

  • Error: insufficient pre (3) or post (0) obs

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 1.0}

Variables resolved

  • oecd:DSD_IDD@DF_IDD → elderly_poverty_rate (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=902)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → oil_terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL → dependency_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)

Variables missing data

  • imf:GGXG_NGDP (outcome, name=social_spending_share_gdp)
  • imf:GGSB_NPGDP (outcome, name=structural_fiscal_balance_share_gdp)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:13+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.