IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect

New Zealand's 1991 'Mother of All Budgets' benefit cuts (8-25% reductions to unemployment, sickness, domestic-purposes, and youth benefits, with stricter eligibility) produced a step-change rise in child poverty (under-65%-median) of at least 6 percentage points within 5 years, identified off the synthetic-control gap with Australia and other small Anglo economies, providing empirical weight to the democratic-socialist critique of front-loaded welfare retrenchment in commodity-exposed economies.

REFUTEDengine/runs/welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect

REFUTED - OECD child poverty changes -1.9pp by 1995, well below the registered +6pp rise

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether nz 1991 cuts indicator is actually linked to better or worse child poverty rate under 65 median from 1985 to 2000.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. OECD child poverty changes -1.9pp by 1995, well below the registered +6pp rise

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1985 to 2000, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Nz 1991 cuts indicator
What we checked
  • Child poverty rate under 65 median
  • Inequality coefficient
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect
1007550250198519932000NZLAUSIRLGBRCAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show child_poverty_rate_under_65_median across 5 sampled countries over 1985–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:53Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

New Zealand's 1991 'Mother of All Budgets' benefit cuts (8-25% reductions to unemployment, sickness, domestic-purposes, and youth benefits, with stricter eligibility) produced a step-change rise in child poverty (under-65%-median) of at least 6 percentage points within 5 years, identified off the synthetic-control gap with Australia and other small Anglo economies, providing empirical weight to the democratic-socialist critique of front-loaded welfare retrenchment in commodity-exposed economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on child-poverty rate at 5-year horizon is below +6pp, OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if Gini parallel synth-control gap is below +0.02.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_5yr_gap_child_poverty
threshold: gap >= +6pp at 5yr horizon AND placebo_p < 0.10 AND gini_gap >= +0.02

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 1985 – 2000
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic control on NZL child-poverty series 1985-2000 with AUS, IRL, GBR, CAN donor pool. Pre-treatment fit 1985-1990. Robustness: Gini-coefficient parallel synth check.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
child_poverty_rate_under_65_median
outcome
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
level_pct
gini_coefficient
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
nz_1991_cuts_indicator
treatment
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect

Verdict: REFUTED - OECD child poverty changes -1.9pp by 1995, well below the registered +6pp rise

OECD Child-Poverty Benchmark

  • NZL 1990 to 1995 change: -1.90 pp.
  • NZL 1990 to 2000 change: 0.00 pp.
  • Limited 2000 synthetic gap: -0.76 pp.

The exact under-65%-median and Gini parallel legs remain unavailable locally.

Generated by engine/runs/welfare_reform_new_zealand_1991_benefit_cuts_effect/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:53+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.