IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment

PRWORA 1996 (TANF block-grant + work requirements) raised single-mother labour-force participation by at least 5 percentage points relative to single-childless-women within five years of state TANF adoption, holding constant EITC expansion and the late-1990s tight labour market.

The orthogonal angle to the existing deep-poverty critique: PRWORA's primary stated goal — moving single mothers from welfare to work — is testable as an employment effect that can succeed even if the deep-poverty critique also binds.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether tanf state adoption is actually linked to better or worse single mother labour force participation rate from 1990 to 2005.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2005, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tanf state adoption
What we checked
  • Single mother labour force participation rate
  • Single childless women lfp rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment
1007550250199019982005USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show single_mother_labour_force_participation_rate across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2005.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T09:47:25Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

PRWORA 1996 (TANF block-grant + work requirements) raised single-mother labour-force participation by at least 5 percentage points relative to single-childless-women within five years of state TANF adoption, holding constant EITC expansion and the late-1990s tight labour market. The orthogonal angle to the existing deep-poverty critique: PRWORA's primary stated goal — moving single mothers from welfare to work — is testable as an employment effect that can succeed even if the deep-poverty critique also binds.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the post-1996 ATT on single-mother LFP relative to single-childless-women comparator is below +5pp at five-year horizon, OR if the 95% CI excludes +5pp, OR if a Goodman-Bacon decomposition shows the average treatment effect is dominated by negative-weight 2x2 contrasts.

formal test & threshold
test:      callaway_santanna_att_5yr_horizon_singlemother_lfp_diff
threshold: ATT >= +5pp at 5yr horizon AND lower 95% CI bound > 0

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2005
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with single-childless-women as comparator group. Pre-trend window 1990-1995, treatment cohorts by state TANF effective date 1996-1997, post-window 1996-2005. Heterogeneity reported by adoption cohort.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
single_mother_labour_force_participation_rate
outcome
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZStier 2
level_pct
single_childless_women_lfp_rate
outcome
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
level_pct
tanf_state_adoption
treatment
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
indicator
state_unemployment_rate
control
fred:UNRATEtier 1
level
state_eitc_supplement_indicator
control
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_reform_prwora_single_mother_employment

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

Pre-registration

  • Claim: PRWORA 1996 (TANF block-grant + work requirements) raised single-mother labour-force participation by at least 5 percentage points relative to single-childless-women within five years of state TANF adoption, holding constant EITC expansion and the late-1990s tight labour market. The orthogonal angle to the existing deep-poverty critique: PRWORA's primary stated goal — moving single mothers from welfare to work — is testable as an employment effect that can succeed even if the deep-poverty critique also binds.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the post-1996 ATT on single-mother LFP relative to single-childless-women comparator is below +5pp at five-year horizon, OR if the 95% CI excludes +5pp, OR if a Goodman-Bacon decomposition shows the average treatment effect is dominated by negative-weight 2x2 contrasts.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded

Variables resolved

Missing data

  • bls:LNS11300000; world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS (outcome)
  • bls:LNS11300000 (outcome)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA (treatment)
  • fred:UNRATE (controls)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA (controls)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T09:47:25+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Orthogonal angle to clinton_welfare_reform_deep_poverty_effect — that hypothesis tests deep-poverty worsening; this one tests employment-elevation, which can hold simultaneously with the poverty critique.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.