IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome

Sweden's 1990s welfare-state consolidation (replacement-rate cuts to sickness/unemployment insurance 1991-1996, 1998 pension reform to NDC, child-allowance flatten 1996-2006) preserved poverty/inequality outcomes (Gini and bottom-40 income share) within plus-or-minus 5% of pre-crisis levels while restoring fiscal sustainability (debt/GDP back below 50% by 2008), supporting the scale-preserving consolidation interpretation rather than retreat from the universal-transfer model.

REFUTEDengine/runs/welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome

REFUTED — coef=+1.434 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0128

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+1.434 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0128

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1985 to 2015, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Inequality coefficient
  • Bottom 40 income share
  • General govt debt to income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome
1007550250198520002015SWENORDNKFINNLDDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_coefficient across 6 sampled countries over 1985–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:55:02Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Sweden's 1990s welfare-state consolidation (replacement-rate cuts to sickness/unemployment insurance 1991-1996, 1998 pension reform to NDC, child-allowance flatten 1996-2006) preserved poverty/inequality outcomes (Gini and bottom-40 income share) within plus-or-minus 5% of pre-crisis levels while restoring fiscal sustainability (debt/GDP back below 50% by 2008), supporting the scale-preserving consolidation interpretation rather than retreat from the universal-transfer model.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if SWE Gini in 2008-2015 deviates by more than 5% from pre-crisis level, OR if bottom-40 share falls more than 5%, OR if elderly poverty rises more than 3pp, OR if debt/GDP fails to fall below 50% by 2008.

formal test & threshold
test:      multi_outcome_band_check_post_consolidation_period
threshold: abs(delta_gini) <= 5pct AND abs(delta_bottom40_share) <= 5pct AND delta_elderly_poverty <= +3pp AND debt_gdp_2008 < 50pct

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 1985 – 2015
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE comparison of SWE outcome trajectories with Nordic and continental-European peers. SWE-specific deviation tested as country-year interaction with post-1996 indicator.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_coefficient
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
bottom_40_income_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.40tier 2
level
general_govt_debt_to_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
level
elderly_poverty_rate
outcome
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
dependency_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_reform_sweden_1990s_consolidation_outcome

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+1.434 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0128

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Sweden's 1990s welfare-state consolidation (replacement-rate cuts to sickness/unemployment insurance 1991-1996, 1998 pension reform to NDC, child-allowance flatten 1996-2006) preserved poverty/inequality outcomes (Gini and bottom-40 income share) within plus-or-minus 5% of pre-crisis levels while restoring fiscal sustainability (debt/GDP back below 50% by 2008), supporting the scale-preserving consolidation interpretation rather than retreat from the universal-transfer model.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if SWE Gini in 2008-2015 deviates by more than 5% from pre-crisis level, OR if bottom-40 share falls more than 5%, OR if elderly poverty rises more than 3pp, OR if debt/GDP fails to fall below 50% by 2008.
  • Falsification test: multi_outcome_band_check_post_consolidation_period

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.434
  • Std error: 0.5623
  • p-value: 0.0128
  • Observations: 111, countries: 6
  • Within R²: 0.256
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_coefficient (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP → general_govt_debt_to_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • oecd:DSD_IDD@DF_IDD → elderly_poverty_rate (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=902)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL → dependency_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.40 (outcome, name=bottom_40_income_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:55:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.