IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run

Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD, established 1982 paying annual dividends to all Alaska residents from oil-revenue-funded sovereign wealth) — averaging USD 1100-2000 per resident-year over 1982-2024 — has produced a measurable and persistent reduction in extreme-poverty rate of at least 3 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control of comparable resource-rich US states (Wyoming, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana) without affecting state-level employment-rate, providing the longest- running natural-experiment evidence for non-trivial unconditional-cash-floor effects in a US-state high-income institutional environment.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run

PARTIAL — ATT=-0.2013, p=nan, N=44, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=-0.2013, p=nan, N=44, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pfd indicator
What we checked
  • Extreme poverty rate state
  • Employment rate working age
  • In migration rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run
1007550250198020022023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show extreme_poverty_rate_state across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:49:03Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD, established 1982 paying annual dividends to all Alaska residents from oil-revenue-funded sovereign wealth) — averaging USD 1100-2000 per resident-year over 1982-2024 — has produced a measurable and persistent reduction in extreme-poverty rate of at least 3 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control of comparable resource-rich US states (Wyoming, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana) without affecting state-level employment-rate, providing the longest- running natural-experiment evidence for non-trivial unconditional-cash-floor effects in a US-state high-income institutional environment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted on the poverty arm if the synth-DiD ATT on extreme-poverty rate at 20-year horizon is below minus-3pp (i.e., reduction less than 3pp), OR placebo p > 0.10. Refuted on the employment arm if the employment-rate ATT exceeds plus or minus 1pp at 20-year horizon (i.e., a non-null employment effect would refute the joint pattern).

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_20yr_paired_poverty_employment
threshold: poverty_att <= -3pp AND abs(employment_att) <= 1pp AND placebo_p < 0.10

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-DiD on AK with WY, ND, TX, LA donor pool 1980-2023. Pre-treatment fit 1980-1981. Long-run trajectory 1982-2023 with post-period heterogeneity by oil-cycle phases.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
extreme_poverty_rate_state
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
employment_rate_working_age
outcome
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
level_pct
in_migration_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZStier 2
level
pfd_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
indicator
oil_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_alaska_permanent_fund_dividend_long_run

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=-0.2013, p=nan, N=44, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD, established 1982 paying annual dividends to all Alaska residents from oil-revenue-funded sovereign wealth) — averaging USD 1100-2000 per resident-year over 1982-2024 — has produced a measurable and persistent reduction in extreme-poverty rate of at least 3 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control of comparable resource-rich US states (Wyoming, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana) without affecting state-level employment-rate, providing the longest- running natural-experiment evidence for non-trivial unconditional-cash-floor effects in a US-state high-income institutional environment.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted on the poverty arm if the synth-DiD ATT on extreme-poverty rate at 20-year horizon is below minus-3pp (i.e., reduction less than 3pp), OR placebo p > 0.10. Refuted on the employment arm if the employment-rate ATT exceeds plus or minus 1pp at 20-year horizon (i.e., a non-null employment effect would refute the joint pattern).

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -0.20128550083819977
  • std_error: nan
  • p_value: nan
  • n_obs: 44
  • n_countries: 1
  • r_squared_within: 1.0
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 1
  • cohort_years: [1980]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → extreme_poverty_rate_state (outcome, n=2862)
  • bls:LNS11300000 → employment_rate_working_age (outcome, n=3)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS → in_migration_rate (outcome, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → pfd_indicator (treatment, n=2862)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → oil_terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T10:49:03+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.