IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect

Argentina's Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH, October 2009 by decreto) reduced child-poverty headcount by at least 8 percentage points within four years (2009-2013), separating the cash-transfer channel from the contemporaneous commodity-boom channel via a synthetic-control of LatAm peers (BRA, COL, PER, URY) with comparable boom exposure but no AUH-scale CCT expansion in the same window.

REFUTEDengine/runs/welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect

REFUTED - WDI poverty proxy fell 1.3pp by 2013, far below the registered 8pp child-poverty gate

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether auh indicator is actually linked to better or worse child poverty headcount from 2000 to 2015.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. WDI poverty proxy fell 1.3pp by 2013, far below the registered 8pp child-poverty gate

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2000 to 2015, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Auh indicator
What we checked
  • Child poverty headcount
  • Inequality coefficient
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect
1007550250200020082015ARGBRACOLPERURYCHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show child_poverty_headcount across 6 sampled countries over 2000–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T19:35:52Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Argentina's Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH, October 2009 by decreto) reduced child-poverty headcount by at least 8 percentage points within four years (2009-2013), separating the cash-transfer channel from the contemporaneous commodity-boom channel via a synthetic-control of LatAm peers (BRA, COL, PER, URY) with comparable boom exposure but no AUH-scale CCT expansion in the same window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on child-poverty headcount at 4-year horizon is below minus-8pp (i.e., reduction less than 8pp), OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if Gini parallel synth-control gap is positive (inequality rises).

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_4yr_gap_child_poverty
threshold: gap <= -8pp at 4yr horizon AND placebo_p < 0.10 AND gini_gap < 0

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 2000 – 2015
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic control on ARG child-poverty series 2000-2015 with BRA, COL, PER, URY donor pool. Pre-treatment fit 2003-2008. Robustness: Gini-coefficient parallel synth check.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
child_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
gini_coefficient
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
auh_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
terms_of_trade_commodity
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log
formal_employment_share
control
ilostat:ILMS_employment_statustier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect

Verdict: REFUTED - WDI poverty proxy fell 1.3pp by 2013, far below the registered 8pp child-poverty gate

Exact Local Benchmark

  • Extreme-poverty proxy fell 1.3 pp from 2009 to 2013.
  • Gini fell 2.7 pp over the same window.
  • Secondary enrolment rose 6.5 pp, but the registered poverty magnitude does not clear.

Caveats

  • WDI extreme poverty is the local proxy listed in the hypothesis, not harmonised child poverty; this makes the refutation a proxy-gate result.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY -> extreme_poverty_headcount_proxy (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.DDAY@2026-05-05T194939Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI -> gini_coefficient (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.GINI@2026-05-05T194923Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.NENR -> secondary_net_enrolment (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SE.SEC.NENR@2026-04-30T141354Z.parquet)

Generated by engine/runs/welfare_transfer_argentina_auh_2009_child_poverty_effect/replication.py at 2026-05-18T19:35:52+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.