IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017

Finland's 2017-2018 Basic Income Experiment (2000 randomised unemployed-benefit recipients receiving EUR 560/month unconditional cash for 24 months versus matched-control unemployed-benefit recipients) produced a small positive employment effect — ATT of less than 6 days additional employment in year 2 — and a measurable improvement in self-reported wellbeing and trust-in-government, providing the cleanest RCT evidence available for unconditional-basic-income labour-supply effects in a high-welfare- state institutional context.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (6)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (6)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for individual and year quarter.

what was measured
What changed
  • Ubi treatment indicator
What we checked
  • Days employed year 2
  • Self reported wellbeing score
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017
1007550250201520182020FIN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show days_employed_year_2 across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:55:04Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Finland's 2017-2018 Basic Income Experiment (2000 randomised unemployed-benefit recipients receiving EUR 560/month unconditional cash for 24 months versus matched-control unemployed-benefit recipients) produced a small positive employment effect — ATT of less than 6 days additional employment in year 2 — and a measurable improvement in self-reported wellbeing and trust-in-government, providing the cleanest RCT evidence available for unconditional-basic-income labour-supply effects in a high-welfare- state institutional context.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted on the labour-supply arm if the ATT on year-2 employment days is below +1 day (no detectable effect) OR exceeds +12 days (large positive effect). Refuted on the wellbeing arm if the wellbeing ATT is non-positive at p < 0.10. The hypothesis describes the joint pattern of small-positive employment + clear wellbeing improvement.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_year2_employment_wellbeing_paired
threshold: 1 <= employment_days_att <= 12 AND wellbeing_att > 0 at p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
individual, year_quarter
Clustering
individual
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE on the experimental sample with individual and time FE. Primary outcome employment days in year 2; secondary outcomes wellbeing and trust scores. Matches Kangas et al. published spec.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
days_employed_year_2
outcome
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
level
self_reported_wellbeing_score
outcome
oecd:DSD_HEALTHtier 2
level
ubi_treatment_indicator
treatment
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
indicator
pre_experiment_employment_history
control
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_finland_basic_income_experiment_2017

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (6)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Finland's 2017-2018 Basic Income Experiment (2000 randomised unemployed-benefit recipients receiving EUR 560/month unconditional cash for 24 months versus matched-control unemployed-benefit recipients) produced a small positive employment effect — ATT of less than 6 days additional employment in year 2 — and a measurable improvement in self-reported wellbeing and trust-in-government, providing the cleanest RCT evidence available for unconditional-basic-income labour-supply effects in a high-welfare- state institutional context.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted on the labour-supply arm if the ATT on year-2 employment days is below +1 day (no detectable effect) OR exceeds +12 days (large positive effect). Refuted on the wellbeing arm if the wellbeing ATT is non-positive at p < 0.10. The hypothesis describes the joint pattern of small-positive employment + clear wellbeing improvement.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_year2_employment_wellbeing_paired

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (6)

Variables resolved

  • oecd:DSD_LFS_BS@DF_EMP_RATE → days_employed_year_2 (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=2255)
  • oecd:DSD_HEALTH@DF_HEALTH_STAT → self_reported_wellbeing_score (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=3304)
  • oecd:DSD_LFS_BS@DF_EMP_RATE → ubi_treatment_indicator (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=2255)
  • oecd:DSD_LFS_BS@DF_EMP_RATE → pre_experiment_employment_history (controls, publisher=oecd, n=2255)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:55:04+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.