IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined

India's combined rural transfer architecture — MGNREGA (2006 employment guarantee, 100 days at state-minimum-wage) and PM-KISAN (2019 unconditional cash transfer of INR 6000/year to small farmers) — produced complementary rural-poverty effects, with MGNREGA delivering wage-floor and consumption- smoothing channels and PM-KISAN delivering targeted-input-finance channel, identified off staggered rollout cohorts and combined-treatment intensity in the panel of Indian states 2006-2024.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2002 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Mgnrega intensity
  • Pmkisan coverage
What we checked
  • Rural poverty headcount
  • Rural real wage index
  • Rural consumption per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined
1007550250200220132024IND
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show rural_poverty_headcount across 1 sampled countries over 2002–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T09:47:25Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's combined rural transfer architecture — MGNREGA (2006 employment guarantee, 100 days at state-minimum-wage) and PM-KISAN (2019 unconditional cash transfer of INR 6000/year to small farmers) — produced complementary rural-poverty effects, with MGNREGA delivering wage-floor and consumption- smoothing channels and PM-KISAN delivering targeted-input-finance channel, identified off staggered rollout cohorts and combined-treatment intensity in the panel of Indian states 2006-2024.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the combined ATT on rural-poverty at 5-year horizon is below minus-3pp, OR if the MGNREGA-channel coefficient and PM-KISAN-channel coefficient are not both individually negative on poverty (i.e., complementary-channels claim requires both contribute), OR if Wald test of joint significance has p > 0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      did_cs_5yr_combined_channels_rural_poverty
threshold: combined_att <= -3pp at 5yr AND mgnrega_coef < 0 AND pmkisan_coef < 0 AND wald_p < 0.10

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 2002 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on Indian states using MGNREGA Phase-1 (2006 200 districts), Phase-2 (2007 130 districts), Phase-3 (2008 universal) cohorts and PM-KISAN 2019 universal launch. Decomposition by channel via separate intensity coefficients.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
rural_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHCtier 2
level_pct
rural_real_wage_index
outcome
ilostat:ILMS_wagestier 2
log
rural_consumption_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
log
mgnrega_intensity
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHCtier 2
level
pmkisan_coverage
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHCtier 2
ratio
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rainfall_anomaly
control
world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MMtier 2
level
agricultural_output_index
control
world_bank_wdi:AG.PRD.CROP.XDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_india_mgnrega_pmkisan_combined

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's combined rural transfer architecture — MGNREGA (2006 employment guarantee, 100 days at state-minimum-wage) and PM-KISAN (2019 unconditional cash transfer of INR 6000/year to small farmers) — produced complementary rural-poverty effects, with MGNREGA delivering wage-floor and consumption- smoothing channels and PM-KISAN delivering targeted-input-finance channel, identified off staggered rollout cohorts and combined-treatment intensity in the panel of Indian states 2006-2024.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the combined ATT on rural-poverty at 5-year horizon is below minus-3pp, OR if the MGNREGA-channel coefficient and PM-KISAN-channel coefficient are not both individually negative on poverty (i.e., complementary-channels claim requires both contribute), OR if Wald test of joint significance has p > 0.10.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded

Variables resolved

Missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHC (outcome)
  • ilostat:ILMS_wages (outcome)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD (outcome)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHC (treatment)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.RUHC (treatment)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls)
  • world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MM (controls)
  • world_bank_wdi:AG.PRD.CROP.XD (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T09:47:25+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.