IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022

Indonesia's PKH (Program Keluarga Harapan, conditional cash transfer launched 2007 with phased expansion to 10M+ households by 2018) and BLT/BLSM unconditional energy-subsidy compensation transfers (2005, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2022) produced complementary poverty effects, with PKH delivering long-horizon human-capital channel and BLT delivering short-horizon consumption-smoothing channel, identified off staggered PKH rollout cohorts and BLT one-shot event-windows in the panel of Indonesian provinces 2005-2022.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022

PARTIAL - PKH-era poverty fell 30.2pp and secondary enrolment rose 13.9pp; BLT consumption-smoothing leg is not locally observed

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether pkh coverage rate is actually linked to better or worse extreme poverty headcount from 2003 to 2022.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. PKH-era poverty fell 30.2pp and secondary enrolment rose 13.9pp; BLT consumption-smoothing leg is not locally observed

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2003 to 2022, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for province and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pkh coverage rate
  • Blt event indicator
What we checked
  • Extreme poverty headcount
  • School enrolment secondary
  • Child underweight rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022
1007550250200320132022IDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show extreme_poverty_headcount across 1 sampled countries over 2003–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T19:35:40Z

Indonesia's PKH (Program Keluarga Harapan, conditional cash transfer launched 2007 with phased expansion to 10M+ households by 2018) and BLT/BLSM unconditional energy-subsidy compensation transfers (2005, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2022) produced complementary poverty effects, with PKH delivering long-horizon human-capital channel and BLT delivering short-horizon consumption-smoothing channel, identified off staggered PKH rollout cohorts and BLT one-shot event-windows in the panel of Indonesian provinces 2005-2022.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if combined ATT on extreme-poverty at 5-year horizon is below minus-3pp, OR PKH-channel coefficient is non-negative on school-enrolment, OR BLT event-window ATT on consumption is below +5pp at 6-month horizon.

formal test & threshold
test:      did_cs_5yr_pkh_3yr_blt_combined_channels
threshold: pkh_5yr_att <= -3pp on poverty AND pkh_school_coef > 0 AND blt_6mo_consumption_att >= +5pp

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
province, year
Clustering
province
Sample
1 countries · 2003 – 2022
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on Indonesian provinces using PKH rollout cohorts (2007-2018) and BLT event-windows. Two-channel decomposition via separate intensity coefficients.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
extreme_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
school_enrolment_secondary
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.NENRtier 2
level_pct
child_underweight_rate
outcome
who_gho:GHOtier 1
level_pct
pkh_coverage_rate
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level
blt_event_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
oil_price_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log
rural_population_share
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.RUR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022

Verdict: PARTIAL - PKH-era poverty fell 30.2pp and secondary enrolment rose 13.9pp; BLT consumption-smoothing leg is not locally observed

Exact Local Benchmark

  • Extreme poverty fell 30.2 pp from 2007 to 2019, before the COVID emergency window.
  • Net secondary enrolment rose 13.9 pp from 2007 to the latest pre-COVID local point, 2018.
  • Gini changed +2.2 pp over 2007-2019.

Caveats

  • The local benchmark supports the long-horizon PKH channel but cannot test the BLT six-month consumption-smoothing channel.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY -> extreme_poverty_headcount (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.DDAY@2026-05-05T194939Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI -> gini_coefficient (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.GINI@2026-05-05T194923Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.NENR -> secondary_net_enrolment (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SE.SEC.NENR@2026-04-30T141354Z.parquet)

Generated by engine/runs/welfare_transfer_indonesia_pkh_blt_2007_2022/replication.py at 2026-05-18T19:35:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.