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Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing

Kenya's Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP, scaled-up from 2013 pilot to full-arm coverage in four northern arid-land counties 2015, with shock-responsive scale-up triggered by NDMA drought-monitor thresholds 2017 and 2022) demonstrably smoothed consumption among recipient households during drought episodes by at least 15 percentage points relative to non-recipient households in eligibility-cliff comparison areas, providing causal evidence that mobile-money-delivered shock-responsive transfers outperform conventional emergency-aid in ASAL contexts.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient obs after listwise deletion (13)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether hsnp recipient indicator is actually linked to better or worse household consumption per capita from 2010 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient obs after listwise deletion (13)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for county and year quarter.

what was measured
What changed
  • Hsnp recipient indicator
What we checked
  • Household consumption per capita
  • Severe food insecurity rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing
1007550250201020172024KEN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show household_consumption_per_capita across 1 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:13Z

Kenya's Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP, scaled-up from 2013 pilot to full-arm coverage in four northern arid-land counties 2015, with shock-responsive scale-up triggered by NDMA drought-monitor thresholds 2017 and 2022) demonstrably smoothed consumption among recipient households during drought episodes by at least 15 percentage points relative to non-recipient households in eligibility-cliff comparison areas, providing causal evidence that mobile-money-delivered shock-responsive transfers outperform conventional emergency-aid in ASAL contexts.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the post-shock-trigger ATT on consumption (treated relative to control households) is below +15pp at 6-month post-trigger horizon, OR if the 95% CI excludes +15pp, OR if the food-insecurity ATT shows no improvement.

formal test & threshold
test:      did_cs_shock_trigger_consumption_smoothing
threshold: consumption_att >= +15pp at 6mo horizon AND food_insecurity_att <= -5pp

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
county, year_quarter
Clustering
county
Sample
1 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD using HSNP scale-up cohorts and shock-responsive-trigger event times 2017 and 2022. Pre-trend window 12 months, post-window 18 months around each shock-trigger.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
household_consumption_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
log
severe_food_insecurity_rate
outcome
who_gho:GHOtier 1
level_pct
hsnp_recipient_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
indicator
rainfall_anomaly
control
world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MMtier 2
level
ndma_drought_indicator
control
world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MMtier 2
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_kenya_hsnp_2015_consumption_smoothing

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient obs after listwise deletion (13)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Kenya's Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP, scaled-up from 2013 pilot to full-arm coverage in four northern arid-land counties 2015, with shock-responsive scale-up triggered by NDMA drought-monitor thresholds 2017 and 2022) demonstrably smoothed consumption among recipient households during drought episodes by at least 15 percentage points relative to non-recipient households in eligibility-cliff comparison areas, providing causal evidence that mobile-money-delivered shock-responsive transfers outperform conventional emergency-aid in ASAL contexts.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the post-shock-trigger ATT on consumption (treated relative to control households) is below +15pp at 6-month post-trigger horizon, OR if the 95% CI excludes +15pp, OR if the food-insecurity ATT shows no improvement.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: insufficient obs after listwise deletion (13)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → household_consumption_per_capita (outcome, n=8501)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → hsnp_recipient_indicator (treatment, n=8501)
  • world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MM → rainfall_anomaly (controls, n=10448)
  • world_bank_wdi:AG.LND.PRCP.MM → ndma_drought_indicator (controls, n=10448)

Missing data

  • who_gho:GHO/NCD_BMI (outcome)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:13+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.