IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019

Mexico's 2019 phase-out of Prospera (formerly Oportunidades / Progresa, the canonical CCT programme studied since 1997) and replacement with un-conditional cash-transfer schemes under AMLO produced a measurable rise in extreme-poverty headcount and a deterioration in school-attendance among poor children of at least 3 percentage points within three years (2019-2022), identified off the synthetic-control gap with LatAm peers (BRA, COL, PER) maintaining CCT continuity.

REFUTEDengine/runs/welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019

REFUTED - poverty moved -1.6pp by 2022 and -2.3pp by 2024, opposite the registered +3pp rise

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether prospera phaseout indicator is actually linked to better or worse extreme poverty headcount from 2010 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. poverty moved -1.6pp by 2022 and -2.3pp by 2024, opposite the registered +3pp rise

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Prospera phaseout indicator
What we checked
  • Extreme poverty headcount
  • School attendance secondary low income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019
1007550250201020172023MEXBRACOLPERECU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show extreme_poverty_headcount across 5 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T19:35:40Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Mexico's 2019 phase-out of Prospera (formerly Oportunidades / Progresa, the canonical CCT programme studied since 1997) and replacement with un-conditional cash-transfer schemes under AMLO produced a measurable rise in extreme-poverty headcount and a deterioration in school-attendance among poor children of at least 3 percentage points within three years (2019-2022), identified off the synthetic-control gap with LatAm peers (BRA, COL, PER) maintaining CCT continuity.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on extreme-poverty headcount at 3-year horizon is below +3pp, OR if the school-attendance gap is above minus-3pp (i.e., attendance does not deteriorate), OR if placebo permutation p > 0.10 on either outcome.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_3yr_paired_poverty_school_attendance
threshold: poverty_gap >= +3pp AND school_gap <= -3pp AND placebo_p < 0.10 on each

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic control on MEX extreme-poverty and school-attendance series 2010-2023 with BRA, COL, PER, ECU donor pool. Pre-treatment fit 2010-2018. Two-outcome paired test.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
extreme_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
school_attendance_secondary_low_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.NENRtier 2
level_pct
prospera_phaseout_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
remittance_inflow_per_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level
oil_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019

Verdict: REFUTED - poverty moved -1.6pp by 2022 and -2.3pp by 2024, opposite the registered +3pp rise

Exact Local Benchmark

  • Extreme poverty was 3.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2022.
  • By 2024 it was 1.6%, a -2.3 pp move from 2018.
  • Gini moved -2.5 pp from 2018 to 2022.

Caveats

  • The poverty leg is decisive against the registered direction; local secondary-attendance coverage ends before the phase-out.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY -> extreme_poverty_headcount (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.DDAY@2026-05-05T194939Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI -> gini_coefficient (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.GINI@2026-05-05T194923Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.NENR -> secondary_net_enrolment (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SE.SEC.NENR@2026-04-30T141354Z.parquet)

Generated by engine/runs/welfare_transfer_mexico_prospera_phaseout_2019/replication.py at 2026-05-18T19:35:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.