IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect

Portugal's 2010-2012 austerity-era rollback of the Rendimento Social de Inserção (RSI) — eligibility restrictions, value freezes, and stricter conditionality under the Troika programme — raised severe material deprivation among working-age households by at least 3 percentage points within 4 years, identified off the synthetic-control gap with Greece-excluded southern-EU donor pool, demonstrating that residualisation of guaranteed-minimum-income programmes during fiscal consolidation has measurable poverty cost.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-565.3, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3e+02, p_perm=0.25 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-565.3, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3e+02, p_perm=0.25 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 2005 to 2018, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rsi rollback indicator
What we checked
  • Severe material deprivation rate
  • Rsi caseload per population
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect
1007550250200520122018PRTESPITAFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show severe_material_deprivation_rate across 4 sampled countries over 2005–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T12:52:27Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Portugal's 2010-2012 austerity-era rollback of the Rendimento Social de Inserção (RSI) — eligibility restrictions, value freezes, and stricter conditionality under the Troika programme — raised severe material deprivation among working-age households by at least 3 percentage points within 4 years, identified off the synthetic-control gap with Greece-excluded southern-EU donor pool, demonstrating that residualisation of guaranteed-minimum-income programmes during fiscal consolidation has measurable poverty cost.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on severe-material-deprivation rate at 4-year horizon is below +3pp, OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if Spain's parallel rentas-mínimas trajectory shows comparable deprivation rise at the same horizon (suggesting common austerity rather than RSI-specific effect).

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_4yr_gap_severe_deprivation
threshold: gap >= +3pp at 4yr horizon AND placebo_p < 0.10

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
4 countries · 2005 – 2018
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic control on PRT severe-material-deprivation series 2005-2018 with ESP, ITA, FRA donor pool. Pre-treatment fit 2005-2009. Heterogeneity by household composition reported.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
severe_material_deprivation_rate
outcome
eurostat:ilc_mddd11tier 1
level_pct
rsi_caseload_per_population
outcome
eurostat:ilc_li02tier 1
ratio
rsi_rollback_indicator
treatment
eurostat:ilc_mddd11tier 1
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
eurostat:une_rt_atier 1
level
structural_fiscal_balance
control
imf:GGSB_NPGDPtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_portugal_rsi_rollback_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-565.3, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3e+02, p_perm=0.25 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Portugal's 2010-2012 austerity-era rollback of the Rendimento Social de Inserção (RSI) — eligibility restrictions, value freezes, and stricter conditionality under the Troika programme — raised severe material deprivation among working-age households by at least 3 percentage points within 4 years, identified off the synthetic-control gap with Greece-excluded southern-EU donor pool, demonstrating that residualisation of guaranteed-minimum-income programmes during fiscal consolidation has measurable poverty cost.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on severe-material-deprivation rate at 4-year horizon is below +3pp, OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if Spain's parallel rentas-mínimas trajectory shows comparable deprivation rise at the same horizon (suggesting common austerity rather than RSI-specific effect).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: PRT
  • event_year: 2010
  • n_donors: 3
  • donor_weights (top): {'ITA': 1.0, 'ESP': 0.0, 'FRA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 314.00868154226254
  • pre_period_sd: 4.202366177273146
  • mean_post_gap: -565.3292483660131
  • end_period_gap: -450.21519607843135
  • post_period_years: [2010, 2018]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.25
  • n_placebos: 3
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:ilc_mddd11 → severe_material_deprivation_rate (outcome, n=653)
  • eurostat:ilc_li02 → rsi_caseload_per_population (outcome, n=976)
  • eurostat:ilc_mddd11 → rsi_rollback_indicator (treatment, n=653)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • eurostat:une_rt_a → unemployment_rate (controls, n=634)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T12:52:27+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.