IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect

Spain's Ingreso Mínimo Vital (IMV, June 2020 emergency-launched during COVID) reached fewer than half of intended-eligible households within 24 months due to take-up frictions, producing a measured reduction in extreme-poverty headcount of less than 3 percentage points by 2022 — well below the pre-launch government estimate of 7-10pp — and providing a natural test of unconditional-floor design in a high-frictions administrative environment.

REFUTEDengine/runs/welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect

REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.398, ratio=1.49; threshold 3.0%, observed 39.8%

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether imv indicator is actually linked to better or worse extreme poverty rate from 2015 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.398, ratio=1.49; threshold 3.0%, observed 39.8%

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 2015 to 2023, using a descriptive design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Imv indicator
What we checked
  • Extreme poverty rate
  • Imv take up rate eligibles
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect
1007550250201520192023ESPITAPRTGRC
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show extreme_poverty_rate across 4 sampled countries over 2015–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T12:52:14Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Spain's Ingreso Mínimo Vital (IMV, June 2020 emergency-launched during COVID) reached fewer than half of intended-eligible households within 24 months due to take-up frictions, producing a measured reduction in extreme-poverty headcount of less than 3 percentage points by 2022 — well below the pre-launch government estimate of 7-10pp — and providing a natural test of unconditional-floor design in a high-frictions administrative environment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if IMV take-up (recipients / eligible households) exceeds 60% by end-2022, OR if the extreme-poverty-rate gap with donor pool exceeds minus-3pp at 24-month horizon (i.e., poverty reduction LARGER than 3pp would refute the under-delivery framing).

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_take_up_and_poverty_gap_24mo
threshold: take_up_2022 < 0.60 AND poverty_gap >= -3pp

Method

Template
descriptive
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
4 countries · 2015 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Descriptive comparison of ESP take-up trajectory and post-IMV poverty path against southern-EU peers. No causal claim beyond the take-up failure — the under-delivery is a design-and-administration outcome.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
extreme_poverty_rate
outcome
eurostat:ilc_mddd11tier 1
level_pct
imv_take_up_rate_eligibles
outcome
eurostat:ilc_li02tier 1
ratio
imv_indicator
treatment
eurostat:ilc_mddd11tier 1
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
eurostat:une_rt_atier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_spain_imv_poverty_effect

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.398, ratio=1.49; threshold 3.0%, observed 39.8%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Spain's Ingreso Mínimo Vital (IMV, June 2020 emergency-launched during COVID) reached fewer than half of intended-eligible households within 24 months due to take-up frictions, producing a measured reduction in extreme-poverty headcount of less than 3 percentage points by 2022 — well below the pre-launch government estimate of 7-10pp — and providing a natural test of unconditional-floor design in a high-frictions administrative environment.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if IMV take-up (recipients / eligible households) exceeds 60% by end-2022, OR if the extreme-poverty-rate gap with donor pool exceeds minus-3pp at 24-month horizon (i.e., poverty reduction LARGER than 3pp would refute the under-delivery framing).
  • Falsification test: descriptive_take_up_and_poverty_gap_24mo

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: ESP
  • treatment_value: 270.0057189542484
  • donor_pool_median: 181.43611111111113
  • ratio: 1.4881586543094356
  • log_diff: 0.39753955324690526
  • n_donor_countries: 3
  • end_year_window: [2018, 2023]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 3.0, 'pp': 10.0}

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:ilc_mddd11 → extreme_poverty_rate (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=653)
  • eurostat:ilc_li02 → imv_take_up_rate_eligibles (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=976)
  • eurostat:ilc_mddd11 → imv_indicator (treatment, publisher=eurostat, n=653)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • eurostat:une_rt_a → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=eurostat, n=634)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T12:52:14+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.