IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019

The Stockton SEED guaranteed-income trial (Feb 2019 - Jan 2021, 125 randomised treated recipients receiving USD 500/month for 24 months in low-income Stockton CA neighbourhoods) produced a measurable full-time-employment-rate increase of approximately 12 percentage points in the treated group versus control, as reported in the West-Castro 2021 evaluation, providing US-context RCT evidence that unconditional-cash floors can complement rather than substitute for labour-market participation among working-age low-income recipients.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: []

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: []

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2018 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for individual and year quarter.

what was measured
What changed
  • Seed treatment indicator
What we checked
  • Full time employment rate
  • Self reported anxiety score
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019
1007550250201820202022USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show full_time_employment_rate across 1 sampled countries over 2018–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:55:06Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Stockton SEED guaranteed-income trial (Feb 2019 - Jan 2021, 125 randomised treated recipients receiving USD 500/month for 24 months in low-income Stockton CA neighbourhoods) produced a measurable full-time-employment-rate increase of approximately 12 percentage points in the treated group versus control, as reported in the West-Castro 2021 evaluation, providing US-context RCT evidence that unconditional-cash floors can complement rather than substitute for labour-market participation among working-age low-income recipients.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the ATT on full-time-employment rate at month 12 is below +5pp, OR exceeds +20pp (implausibly large), OR if the published 12pp result fails to replicate when COVID months are excluded, OR if the 95% CI excludes +5pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_seed_employment_att_12mo_24mo
threshold: 5pp <= employment_att <= 20pp at 12mo AND lower 95% CI > 0pp

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
individual, year_quarter
Clustering
individual
Sample
1 countries · 2018 – 2022
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE on the SEED experimental sample with COVID-period exclusion robustness check. Primary outcome full-time-employment rate at month 12 and month 24.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
full_time_employment_rate
outcome
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
level_pct
self_reported_anxiety_score
outcome
oecd:DSD_HEALTHtier 2
level
seed_treatment_indicator
treatment
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
indicator
pre_program_employment_history
control
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_stockton_seed_guaranteed_income_2019

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: []

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Stockton SEED guaranteed-income trial (Feb 2019 - Jan 2021, 125 randomised treated recipients receiving USD 500/month for 24 months in low-income Stockton CA neighbourhoods) produced a measurable full-time-employment-rate increase of approximately 12 percentage points in the treated group versus control, as reported in the West-Castro 2021 evaluation, providing US-context RCT evidence that unconditional-cash floors can complement rather than substitute for labour-market participation among working-age low-income recipients.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the ATT on full-time-employment rate at month 12 is below +5pp, OR exceeds +20pp (implausibly large), OR if the published 12pp result fails to replicate when COVID months are excluded, OR if the 95% CI excludes +5pp.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_seed_employment_att_12mo_24mo

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: []

Variables resolved

  • bls:LNS11300000 → full_time_employment_rate (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • oecd:DSD_HEALTH@DF_HEALTH_STAT → self_reported_anxiety_score (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=3304)
  • bls:LNS11300000 → seed_treatment_indicator (treatment, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • bls:LNS11300000 → pre_program_employment_history (controls, publisher=bls, n=3)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:55:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.