IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea

Universal-childcare expansions in three jurisdictions — Quebec 1997 (CAD 5/day universal subsidised childcare), Germany 2013 (legal-entitlement to under-3 childcare via U3 Ausbau), Korea 2013 (universal free childcare for ages 0-5) — produced cross-jurisdiction-replicable maternal-LFP increases of at least 4 percentage points within five years of universal-rollout, identified off rest-of-Canada, rest-of-Germany (eastern-states pre-treatment baseline), and synthetic-control donor pools, providing triangulation evidence for a generalisable maternal-LFP effect of universal childcare.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+8.567, |gap|/pre_sd=11, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether universal childcare indicator is actually linked to better or worse maternal labour force participation under 5 from 1990 to 2022.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+8.567, |gap|/pre_sd=11, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 3 country or place units from 1990 to 2022, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for jurisdiction and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Universal childcare indicator
What we checked
  • Maternal labour force participation under 5
  • Childcare enrolment under 3
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea
1007550250199020062022CANDEUKOR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show maternal_labour_force_participation_under_5 across 3 sampled countries over 1990–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T20:44:02Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Universal-childcare expansions in three jurisdictions — Quebec 1997 (CAD 5/day universal subsidised childcare), Germany 2013 (legal-entitlement to under-3 childcare via U3 Ausbau), Korea 2013 (universal free childcare for ages 0-5) — produced cross-jurisdiction-replicable maternal-LFP increases of at least 4 percentage points within five years of universal-rollout, identified off rest-of-Canada, rest-of-Germany (eastern-states pre-treatment baseline), and synthetic-control donor pools, providing triangulation evidence for a generalisable maternal-LFP effect of universal childcare.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if any individual jurisdiction ATT on maternal-LFP at 5-year horizon is below +4pp, OR if the joint-pattern test (all three jurisdictions show consistent positive effects within confidence bounds) fails at the 10% level. Cross-jurisdiction replication requires all three.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_5yr_maternal_lfp_three_jurisdiction_replication
threshold: each_jurisdiction_att >= +4pp AND joint_pattern_test_p < 0.10

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
jurisdiction, year
Clustering
jurisdiction
Sample
3 countries · 1990 – 2022
Evidence type
causal

Synth-DiD on each jurisdiction with rest-of-Canada (for Quebec), rest-of-Germany (for federal- universal Germany 2013), and OECD-Asia donor pool (for Korea). Three cases evaluated separately; cross-jurisdiction replication assessed by joint-pattern-test on the three ATTs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
maternal_labour_force_participation_under_5
outcome
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
level_pct
childcare_enrolment_under_3
outcome
oecd:DSD_FAMILYtier 2
level_pct
universal_childcare_indicator
treatment
oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
female_education_years
control
undp_hdi:female_mean_years_schoolingtier 2
level
total_fertility_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_universal_childcare_quebec_germany_korea

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+8.567, |gap|/pre_sd=11, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Universal-childcare expansions in three jurisdictions — Quebec 1997 (CAD 5/day universal subsidised childcare), Germany 2013 (legal-entitlement to under-3 childcare via U3 Ausbau), Korea 2013 (universal free childcare for ages 0-5) — produced cross-jurisdiction-replicable maternal-LFP increases of at least 4 percentage points within five years of universal-rollout, identified off rest-of-Canada, rest-of-Germany (eastern-states pre-treatment baseline), and synthetic-control donor pools, providing triangulation evidence for a generalisable maternal-LFP effect of universal childcare.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if any individual jurisdiction ATT on maternal-LFP at 5-year horizon is below +4pp, OR if the joint-pattern test (all three jurisdictions show consistent positive effects within confidence bounds) fails at the 10% level. Cross-jurisdiction replication requires all three.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CAN
  • event_year: 1997
  • n_donors: 2
  • donor_weights (top): {'KOR': 0.7236, 'DEU': 0.2764}
  • pre_rmse: 9.748876907764677
  • pre_period_sd: 0.7917902931645631
  • mean_post_gap: 8.566871205735577
  • end_period_gap: 6.84631347616039
  • post_period_years: [1997, 2022]
  • placebo_p_value: 1.0
  • n_placebos: 2
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • oecd:DSD_LFS_BS@DF_EMP_RATE → maternal_labour_force_participation_under_5 (outcome, n=2255)
  • oecd:DSD_LFS_BS@DF_EMP_RATE → universal_childcare_indicator (treatment, n=2255)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.IN → total_fertility_rate (controls, n=16933)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T20:44:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.